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What if We Have No Halloween Items to Sell?

I read recently over at Cinema Blend that Guild Wars 2 will have a Halloween event and content update. I was a little disheartened to learn that Arena Net might not be introducing any new items into the player traded economy. As in you might only be able to buy stuff with gems but not sell to other players for gold. Then I realized something pretty obvious: gems will most likely go up in price during Halloween.

So what I'm doing right now is dollar cost averaging. I'm investing 1 gold into gems every single day. I will continue to do this until Halloween items begin selling on the trading post. Then I will be selling my stockpiled gems all throughout the holiday.

I am hoping to make decent amounts of money from doing this, maybe even hitting a 30%+ return on investment. Time will tell if this was the right call, but I have a feeling that every single holiday event and new content will cause gem prices to rise at least temporarily.

What do you think?

11 comments:

  1. Lucretius said...:

    Interesting strategy.

    It's definitely clear from gw2spidy that the price has been steadily rising over time. Wouldn't it make more sense to dump as much gold into gems now, as quickly as possible so that your profit isn't eroded by the steadily rising price?

  1. Brent Parish said...:

    Hi I'm new to this so can you please explain something to me, as we speak its about 60 silver to buy 100 gems, but gems to gold is only 42s, so for you to make money are you expecting that gems to gold will rise over the holiday to say 70 - 80 silver?Which is quite a big jump almost 50%. Also can you please explain what the effect on the price of gold to gems and gems to gold when gems are bought and also when they are sold? I'm a bit confused as I would of thought an influx of people buying gems e.g. for an event would drive the gem to gold conversion price down yet looking on gw2spidy the gem to gold/gold to gem lines pretty well track parallel, e.g as the gold to gem price has been rising so too has the gem to gold price.

  1. Anonymous said...:

    I think it's not gonna be worth effort, you would make more with same amount of gold flipping at time or waiting for opportunity to play with halloween event items. It's reckless to rely on gems to gold spike, when at same time gems could be bought with irl money.

    First day/hours of event gems will go up in price, mayeb even net you solid profit (if any), but past that point... Too reckless.

  1. Wolfox said...:

    High risk, high reward strategy I guess. But I think, this time I won´t join the train, too many unknown facts. Or does someone know, how much gold you need to push the price one copper up or how many diamonds you need to push the price down?

  1. Lexell said...:

    But right now the gems i like 100 gems for about 60s and 100 gems sells for like 40s so u think the selling price will pass the 60 u buy it for?

  1. Anonymous said...:

    From the previous example to have 30% profit sell price of gems should go from 40s to 80s. Not very probable. Especially in a market that price is not a simple demand - offer relation.

  1. MaxB said...:

    Perhaps I don't understand how the gem to gold thing works because to me it seems like the price is going up because people are turning gold into gems and not the other way around. If someone knows for sure I would love to know.

  1. Toasty said...:

    this is not going to work, as gems have a different market for buying and selling. try it now. buy 1g of gems = about 160 gems. then try to sell 175 gems... you get about 60 silver. you are going to lose tons of money

  1. Nyth said...:

    The prices are dependent on each other though. Both gold to gem and gem to gold will always run parallel (which is logical, if gems become more rare the cost to buy them will go up, but you'll also be able to sell them for more)

    The price difference between selling and buying is merely a "fee" much like trading from one currency to another at the bank costs you money as well.
    This also stops people flipping gems, because it's frankly never worth it with the high fee.

    The reason prices have been going up steadily the past few weeks is simply due to inflation. People gather more money, so the gem store items are more easily available, which leads to an increase in people buying gems with gold; which in turn drives up the price.

    I think the idea to buy gems now and sell them during holidays is actually a pretty good one.
    Gem costs will go up by themselves as more and more people gain more wealth by which I mean to say even if prices aren't enough for a profit at Halloween you'd still be able to make a profit out of Christmas holiday for example.
    But with unique halloween costumes for sale, maybe even on limited availability or for a special discount; you could easily see gem prices go up by 50-100% in a really short amount of time.

  1. Kikken_F said...:

    I have a general question about TP.

    Say im selling runes to what was the lowest selling price at the time. No one bought them, and in the meanwhile the lowest price has changed (lets admit it diminished).
    So now people wont buy them because there is cheaper. You dont cancel sell orders, but only buy orders. So you wait for market to pass by your price again?

    And re-posting an item will cost you another 5% of the price is that right?

  1. Anonymous said...:

    Guys I just read what will happen during the event. HOLD ON TO YOUR BLACK LION'S CHEST. They went from 4 copper to 27 today. Towards the end it should get crazy!

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