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Stock Market or Trading Post?

"Hi Markco,
 I have a quick question that has been gnawing at my brain quite some time and no one has been able to answer if for me: Is it possible to play the currency exchange like a stock market, riding it's ups and downs, converting gold to gems and gems to gold at peaks, and coming out on top? I've heard no mention of this anywhere, and wonder if no one has ever though of it (doubtful), or if Anet just takes a large cut of all transactions, thus rendering it a lose lose situation. Please let me know your thoughts and insights on this topic, as it has really been bugging me for some time, but I'm a little scared of getting into the market with such an information deficit.
-Ian

ps. Your website is fantastic. I'm not quite as interested in the details as to what goods you recommend (sorry), but more in your earlier posts regarding the basic principles and theory, i.e. how to look for a market, how to use buying and selling options, and other various tips and tricks in regards to making it on the gw2 economy. I would really enjoy seeing more of your insights in those matters."

You  know, I really do wish this were possible. If you buy 1 gold worth of gems and try to resell them, you will get back approximately 73 gold and change (that's a ~36.XX% fee!). Gems do not go up or down 36% in a single day, so day trading is out of the question.

During the month of December, gems spiked early on and then tricked back down to November rates. See chart below from gw2spidy:

Even if you had bought on December 3rd and sold on Dec 16th, you still would not have made very much money

So can you get into gem investing? Yes, absolutely, but not like any other investments in this game. My suggestion for this market is to use dollar cost averaging. So you spend let's say 1 gold per day on gems, every day, for 6 months. Whenever there is a decent spike in price (like december had), you can sell all of your gems for a profit. Dollar cost averaging helps prevent loss by only allowing you to buy one gold per day, and then you just have to pick a price that is higher than your average buying point when you do sell.

Keep track of how many gems you get per gold spent and you'll have a pretty good idea of when to sell or hang on some more.

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