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Unidentified Dyes - Arenanet Economic Blunder?

Any time an item becomes easily accessible to the general population and the demand remains the same then its price will decrease proportionate to the increase in availability.

I am thoroughly disappointed with the Guild Wars 2 economic staff if they have no plan to offset the devastating effect that free dyes will have on the game. Supposedly you are going to be able to pick up a crown every day and ten as a reward for some monthly achievement.

Great, so 5 of these crowns (price subject to change as stated by Arenanet already) will reward you with 10 unidentified dyes (also subject to change).

Now, I get around 2 unidentified dyes per hour of straight farming. That's an easy 10 silver as long as I don't identify them. For newer players, it is a great way for them to get access to an item even max level characters will buy. In other words, it is excellent starter income and a bonus for people at max level.

So what will the price be after this change? I'm thinking that if I used to get 2 per hour, and now I will get an additional 10 every two days, that I'll end up with something like 18 dyes every two days. Compare that to only 8 dyes normally and you have a 225% decrease in price. So what will Dyes be worth a week after this change? Probably somewhere around 200%-300% price decrease.

Only good thing about all this is that most people don't stockpile unidentified dyes for speculation purposes and instead either sell or identify upon finding them.

I will take back all my criticism if ArenaNet is also planning on increasing the number of dyes available in the game. It's going to take a lot of them to make up for the new number of unidentified ones, but I shouldn't judge too quickly.

They could also tweak the numbers to make the drop in price less dramatic, as in the number of crowns per day, the cost for 10 dyes, and even the number of dyes rewarded for the turn in.

10 comments:

  1. Anonymous said...:

    I'm guessing you missed the part where they said they're still working on finalizing the numbers...?

    https://forum-en.guildwars2.com/forum/game/gw2/Will-existing-achievements-get-converted/first#post1213503

    No need to panic just yet.

  1. Markco said...:

    Hmmm I thought I got that point across in the article, but thanks for sharing link for everyone.

  1. Anonymous said...:

    I apologize if I misread your post. The tone just sounded kind of panicked/critical with the obligatory "I take it all back if..." just thrown on at the end. That may not have been the intent, but just my misinterpretation of the tone.

    I appreciate the work you put into this site. It helped me get started on the tp.

  1. Anonymous said...:

    Seems that somebody invested on dyes and is upset by a possible drop in their price ;)

    Don't forget that, even if you (and me, and many other players) are actually playing the TP, Guild Wars 2 wasn't designed this way, it's part of the game, I agree with you on that point, but the game remains a MMORPG, not a WallStreet simulation.

    Beyond that, you are the first one saying that updates are part of the TP game, the only difference between thoses updates, and the one mentionned above, is that their will be a drop in prices instead of a rise.

    Many items tend to be quite expensive these days, a little drop in their price is welcome.

  1. Markco said...:

    1. I don't trade in dyes
    2. This hurts low level characters

    That's why I'm worried about this decision. But you're correct that not every change positively effects the value of targeted items.

  1. Markco said...:

    Sorry with #1. I mean to say that I trade in regular dyes, not unidentified ones. All dye prices will drop.

  1. Anonymous said...:

    "Supposedly you are going to be able to pick up a crown every day.."
    "5 of these crowns... will reward you with 10 unidentified dyes"
    "now I will get an additional 10 every TWO days"
    Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't it "every 5 days"? Also I get this strong feeling that those dyes are going to be account bound.

  1. Anonymous said...:

    You can already purchase Unidentified Dyes with Glory: those Unid'ed Dyes are soulbound. These new ones will likely be the same.

  1. Markco said...:

    Right but demand will still go down, even if the supply being added is soul bound.

  1. Anonymous said...:

    ech... and no1 even bothers to think about what are these crowns are gonna be used mostly - and believe me it ain't gonna be dyes. PPL will buy mini pets - gather tons and tons of crowns for precursors and etc. Dyes will propably fall into that category of items not worth spending them on since any dye I want can be obtained via TP.

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