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How to Tip the Mystic Forge in Your Favor

Recently on the blog I showcased a reader's strategy to making their first 100 gold utilizing the Mystic Forge. Obviously, when thousands of people reading this blog tried the same strategy, there were mixed results. Some made 10 gold, some lost 10 gold, but most people acknowledged that this method opened up new possibilities for making gold in Guild Wars 2.

Part of the problem with this blog is its wide audience. While the forum and the secrets members find in there can provide a level of privacy, any strategies I display publicly on the blog need to be viewed differently. So what I'm going to do is use the most recent Mystic Forge development with Runes and show you how to create your own, related method to acquire gold.

So we know that the Mystic Forge can be used to create the next "tier" of items in any category. So armor, weapons, sigils, runes, crafting materials, etc can be transformed at a set cost. The results are also random, so what does that tell us? It shows that several conditions must be right to make money from the Mystic Forge.

1. Since the results are random, you must be willing to spend enough gold to beat terrible RNG.
2. What the mystic forge produces must be worth a significant amount more than what you put in.
3. You can buy one item and split it into four stacks and still use the forge.

Take that information and start investigating the possibility for making gold elsewhere. I have and had great success during any time of change. When the game does change, like a bot ban happens, there are opportunities to use the forge to create materials for cheap. I bought up tier 5 mats for super cheap when 5 and 6 dropped in price, then transformed them into tier 6 for huge profits a few weeks later.

From what I've read online, you have about a 1/16 chance of the forge producing something of the next tier. But that doesn't mean it's going to be profitable, as with runes you could get superior rune of the undead for example. So you need to also look at the results and just tally up how many profitable ones exist. This gives you a better idea of what kind of RNG you have to beat to be successful.

I hope that helps, now go explore opportunities now and future possibilities so that you can react before the majority of players!

5 comments:

  1. AlterForm said...:

    A clarification: From what I understand, there is a 1/5 chance of any given Forge attempt "upgrading" the items you put in. Given that you can recycle a failed attempt, you can get 5 Forge attempts with just 16 inputs (4+3+3+3+3). Thus:

    You have a 1/5 chance of any given Forge attempt upgrading.
    You convert your inputs to 1/16 as many upgraded items.

    As a quick napkin calculation, I often divide my inputs by 3 (to find how many forge attempts I have, for large enough n) and then divide that by 5 (to find how many upgrades I can expect).

    (It might also be worth looking into the other function of the forge -- adding 5~12 levels -- even though it's a bit buggy sometimes. At the very least you can save a bit of coin on inputs, or you might find a profitable threshold.)

  1. Anonymous said...:

    Seems like there's DR on the Mystic Forge as well. After a while, I was no logner getting any upgrades.

  1. Markco said...:

    I've not seen evidence to support such a claim.

  1. XiaoD PS said...:

    Wheter you have seen prove of it or not, the chance of promoting to the higher tier is 20%.


    Evidence:
    http://www.guildwars2guru.com/topic/67443-precursor-r-d-thread/page__st__390#entry2165335

  1. Anonymous said...:

    I used the Mystic Forge the past 3 days very intensely. I got upgrades in the beginning, went to get another stack and I got the exact same. After a while I started getting no upgrades at all. I stopped and played the game a bit and came back about 2 hours later. Guess what, I started getting my upgrades again. I have a feeling that there is indeed a DR. This is from doing it not from any other source whatsoever.

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