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We Want More Economic Disasters

Whenever bot bans occur, there are sweeping changes in the supply of items throughout the game. This economic turmoil may confuse the average consumer, but it sends jolts of adrenaline through the trading post players.

We need more events like the monthly crafting and salvaging. I hope that next month is mystic forging! But instead of saying things like "craft x rares of any type" you should be far more specific. Like craft 100 of each discpline or mystic forge 25 of each tier of crafting materials. Something along those lines to cause maximum demand across all the markets that could possibly be affected.

You see, guild wars 2's economy is really only based on a number of systems that interweave with one another. Demand is usually dependent upon how weaker items can be transformed into stronger ones and not the fact that the weaker item can be used by itself.

Take weapons and armor for example. The vast majority of sub level 80 weapons and armor have prices based on the runes/sigils they contain. This is because people can salvage the items with master or mystic salvage kits and get back the runes/sigils 80% of the time. There's also the fact that certain white/fine items salvage into far more valuable materials, so that sets the same kind of bottom for the market.

If you want to gamble your way to success, there are plenty of opportunities as long as the market doesn't remain stable. If it reaches equilibrium then you have a 50/50 chance of being successful when gambling, which is not what you want.

Since the game is global and people are on all hours of your time zone, the only real cycles are weekly and seasonal. You buy early in the week and sell on the weekend, well at least that's the case for most items anyway. Most of your success will come from timing buy orders and sell orders appropriately.

What Guild Wars 2 needs to continue exploring is ways to offset the equilibrium of the game, setting off little chain reactions across all the parts that interact. This creates opportunity for people who truly understand all the ways to salvage, open bags, craft, flip, and use the mystic forge.

Take bot bans for example. Most people by now know that the price of tier 5/6 mats go up in price when bots get banned. You can make money buying when it's announced and selling the mats as the price goes up. However, you can make far more combining tier 5 materials into the mystic forge to create random amounts of tier 6 materials, then sell the tier 6 stuff.

Guild Wars 2 should look into boosting the popularity and power of worthless items in their game. I think they had a good start with some of their changes, like for sticks of butter, but more needs to be done. And they also need to work on the items that aren't worthless, but sit at the bottom price dictated by an outside system. Like salvaging certain items to get materials. You know you're going to get x materials on average and they are worth y per salvage attempt. So the item is always around y + fees but rarely less than that. To me that's equilibrium and things need to be shaken up in order to provide opportunities.

What you can do in the mean time is get a better understanding of how all the systems in the game interact with one another. Everything from crafting to salvaging.


  1. Patrick said...:

    I don't really understand what you're trying to say in this post. Are you saying that players should continue to find ways to mess with the system and exploit changes? I think it's out of the question this happens, and is always going to happen, regardless of whether there are any changes in the game or not.

    If, on the other hand, you mean that ANet should start messing with the system and changing things that are beneficial to only a part of the playerbase (as those chain reactions you describe surely would), then I think it's not going to happen. They explicitly stated they want as much equality of wealth in the game as possible (see https://www.guildwars2.com/en/news/john-smith-on-the-guild-wars-2-virtual-economy/ for example), and "offsetting the equilibrium" would totally contradict that statement in my opinion.
    Bot bans are a means to do that, and the achievements like item salvaging are in the game so players have a goal to strive for, nothing is going to change on that end. I think it's not going to get any "deeper" than that though, because after all it's still a game based around fighting players and monsters, not playing the TP.

  1. Markco said...:

    What I'm asking for are incentives to increase demand and reduce supply randomly for items. Then opposite changes to reduce demand and increase supply later down the road.

  1. Supremacy said...:

    I fully agree with this post, but one thing to bare in mind is that I really doubt this would ever be high up on their to-do list. There are so many areas of the game to work on that I doubt they will ever get to "create market-specific fluctuations".

    We can only hope that they try introduce these fluctuations through side-effects of other changes, which seems they easiest and most feasible way.

  1. Anonymous said...:

    Marko, that is a natural occurance with the game's development. For instance, with the latest patch, rares drop more frequently. That means that ectos and sigils/runes from salvaging these rare items go through the floor almost overnight (ala ectos going to 25s each vs. 39s pre-patch). It isn't something they have to try and do - it happens automatically whenever they change an aspect of the game.

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