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I thought of something today, and I believe it's a piece of a larger puzzle. Every time there are new events released to Guild Wars 2, which has been a consistent feature of the game so far, certain items spike in price. That's the assumption, but for the latest event I decided to test my theory with runes.
Remember how I talked about making lots of gold from combining runes? Here is one such way to get your runes cheap and then take advantage of combining them.
Prior to February of this year, most major runes were below 3 silver 50 copper buy orders. I frequently snagged them for around 3.4 silver then combined to gamble for superior runes. However, over the course of March to June, the price steadily increased to over 4 silver buy orders. What's more, the price of superior runes hasn't really changed for over a year.
So you have this strange buy order adjustment of 50 copper over the course of the past few events. My assumption is that we won't see another event after Dragon Bash until Halloween. It's a speculative guess, but regardless, here's how I am going to play based on it:
I will place buy orders on as many major runes as I can, in large amounts of 250-1000 per rune, the moment I notice prices starting to dip again. Since I don't know when the next event will be, I'll have to adjust my buy orders as the prices continue to dip. Then when the time comes, I will have a big stockpile of superior runes for players during Halloween or an unknown event beforehand.
But here's the thing: I don't care about when I sell them. All I know is that combining major runes when the price is this high remains unprofitable, but previously it was relatively low risk.
I mentioned that this was part of a larger puzzle. There are indeed additional markets which react in the same fashion. Have you found any?