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Speculating Long and Short Term


Why are prices so volatile? Ask ArenaNet, because they practically begged and instructed us all to speculate on this recent patch. Prices have been ridiculous, with things like mithril ore (which will be quite valuable at some point in the near future due to its use in high end crafting) going from 40 copper to 1 silver and back down to 40 copper. Prices are so crazy BECAUSE speculators make up the majority of buyers and sellers. For anyone who is thinking long term here, which is rare in the speculating world, these temporary price dips are golden opportunities to double down on your speculations. As short term speculators run out of their stock from constantly dumping the moment prices reach a certain point, and long term speculators stock up even further, then we will slowly see prices reach an equilibrium point. It is then, after a week or two of stability (at least predictable ups and downs like we had before), that we long term speculators can slowly release our stockpiles into the market.

What should you do now while you wait for equilibrium? Depends on whether you are a short term or long term speculator. If you want a little gold now, then sell off your stockpiles the moment they reach a decent increase in value. If you want to get lots of gold later, buy up the items you’re stockpiling any time they suffer from a random dip due to short term speculation.

So who were the big winners yesterday when the trading post turned back on? By far the biggest winner was armor. Anyone who has been flipping these regularly (as instructed on this blog and the private forum guides) saw incredible increases in their value. I had a bunch of gloves I bought for 20 copper buy orders that sold for 4, 5, and even 6 silver before I ran out!

How did patch day go for you?

9 comments:

  1. Anonymous said...:

    It went great. For the first time, I really didn't care about getting the content, but rather...making a profit out of the content. With that mindset (which took me waaaay too long to figure out considering I actually wasted materials at the start of the game on crafting) I managed to make a 2000 gold profit. Honestly...it went better than expected.

  1. Syd said...:

    I sold everything I had but some T6 fine materials, because I don't want to lose money on them and can always be used for crafting, so I will just wait.

    Overall I made around 100G profit, that is a 150% ROI, so it was quite good!

    It could have been even better but there was a lot of speculation going on and I did not realize that until it was too late :p

  1. Anonymous said...:

    Honestly It went horrible for me, it seems like I put my money on the wrong horses. Mithril and platinum ore are quite low now and the superior runes of the pirate are even a bigger letdown for me. I hope the prices will go up soon.

  1. Anonymous said...:

    I bought lots of ectos before patch... stupid decision.

  1. Anonymous said...:

    It got me with a few hundreds of armor pieces that had magic find stats and I didn't bother to collect from TP before patch. Now they are all useless and will have to be destroyed as they became account bound :|

  1. Anonymous said...:

    I also think the Gossmar Scrap was a winner. Bought that at about 80 copper sold it when it was spiking like crazy between 3 to 4.5 silver in batches and made about 250 gold profit on very little risk

  1. Anonymous said...:

    you should make an article about what we should do with all these globs of ectoplasm haha... I think everyone on your website bought tons of it.

  1. I see most people that didn't make money right away after the patch feel they lost money. You bought a lot of ectos? Just sit on them for a while, if you look at it from a logical standpoint it's fairly simple. Anet has created new demand for ectos amd mitril ore and so many other items, but the supply is the same. So prices will go up.

    You might think I am crazy now, but the reason prices have gone down rather then up has been due to speculation and people losing their calm. Just stay calm and hold on to your stock until the items balance out and the stock of those wanting to make fast money or those selling out of fear dry out. Prices will then start rising.

    To give you an example. During the Southsun event people were stocking up on karka shells, i bought my fair share of shells as I knew this item would bounce back up. When the event was over the prices crashed further due to people dumping their shells on the market. I just bought some more. I stored it and waited for months. Now I have started selling and am making three times my investment and more.

    Speculation is not always about making money right away, it's also about being patient and not get scared whenever the market makes some weird moves. Patience usually pays off pretty well.

  1. Anonymous said...:

    Make some mystic forge salvage kits (you do have >100 mystic forge stones with nothing else better to do with them?) and salvage the ectos for dust and lots of essence of luck.

    I salvaged 100 odd ectos into a stack of crystalline dust and put my MF% up about 20% in the process.

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