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Top 10 Traded Items and Speculator's Remorse

Take a look at the top ten traded items one day after the ascended crafting patch hit Guild Wars 2.

Mitrhil Ore, Elder Wood Log, Orichalcum Ore, Watchwork Sprocket, Ancient Wood Log, Iron Ore, Glob of Ectoplasm, Copper Ore, and Large Claw.

Let's see, what do all of these items have in common? They are all crafting materials related to the patch changes (except for watchwork sprocket which dealt with the Queen's Jubilee). These are also what a lot of people were stockpiling, so naturally the nervous speculators have dumped their inventories hoping to make a few gold or just recover their losses. That's a big mistake right now, so if you're one of those people stop and at least wait until the weekend!!! I'm going to hold on to everything, especially globs of ectoplasm, as I wait for the rares that we salvage to get ectoplasm to increase in price naturally over time. The magic find change ensured that rares will increase, so that means ectoplasms as well, besides the fact that a daily crafting recipe requires them. Until everyone is sitting at 500 crafting, the globs of ectoplasm will suffer from "speculator's remorse," as I like to call it.

Speculation is not a game for the meek or feint of heart. For example, if you held on to your super box skins from the last event then you're probably looking at a massive 300%-500% profit right now. Now, who was it that said to hold on to those? I can't remember... oh yeah it was me.

You also want to speculate on a lot of items, so if you have any losers then your winners will hopefully cancel them out. For example, it looks like Orichalcum Ore is going to be a big winner for me, but Copper Ore will not (for now).

Prices are spiking randomly as people continue to speculate on the lows or give into speculator's remorse. Me? I'm sitting pretty on thousands of items, and the only things I've sold are pieces of armor since the patch hit. Those are the only things being bought by consumers (with little speculating interference) compared to the massive number of stockpiled crafting materials people saved for this patch. I am in it for the long haul and the new "equilibrium" that John Smith so eloquently coined a few days before the patch. I have to believe he worked hard to get permission to instigate so much speculating among the Guild Wars 2 player base for the patch. Bravo I say! We need more of that in the Trading Post game.

12 comments:

  1. Anonymous said...:

    Where exactly do you see a "300%-500% profit"?
    Most skins are about the same price that they were during the time you posted the blog post you linked above.

  1. Anonymous said...:

    Should we get to stockpiling even more now that the prices are fairly low?

  1. Markco said...:

    Look at great sword.

    Be careful. Tier 1 may take longer to bounce back since salvaging low level items flooded the market.

  1. Anonymous said...:

    At the end of April, the buy orders for the GS were just below 60g. As of now, the sell orders are around 30g....

  1. Markco said...:

    I bought them at 13 gold. At the end of April they did rise to 60 gold then drop back down to 20 gold. Now they are on the way back up.

  1. Ed Cerqueira said...:

    Hey Markco, if u not got a good profit with copper ore that because u hold too long to sell them, ive got 100% profit selling when they hit 64c, ive sold 4 stacks of ancient wood log, each unit per 16s58c (i regret not bought more before), each stack ive sold for around 40G, thats was my best selling till now, im still holding 2k gossamer scraps (thanks to you Markco), ive bougth it for 91c, yesterdey its was hitting around 3s40c, it will be another massive win, keep up the great work man.

  1. Ed Cerqueira said...:

    Ahh, one more thing... about ecto, i really dont think it will back to prices it was hitting before patch, in my guess they got too high because of farm events like Crown Pavilion and Scarlet Invasions and almost no one was doing the world bosses (less rares being salvaged) and obviously the "speculators" like us, but till a next new patch or something like that i guess ectos will get under 20s again... well thats are my thoughts, share yours guys.

    Blah, my english isnt good, i know ^.-

  1. Anonymous said...:

    Markco, you stated Sept to continue to invest in those top 10 items even though prices are rising. Looks to me like they are hitting pretty high up there and the margin for profit is shrinking. Do you still feel that buying ori, ancient woods, etc. is still good at this time?

    How do you feel about T6's, in particular, Vial of Powerful Blood?

  1. Anonymous said...:

    Another post trying to fix the fail of 9/3 speculation

  1. Markco said...:

    There was plenty of success on the speculation end of this blog... especially if you sold your items at the right times. But people who owned forum time definitely kicked butt.

  1. Anonymous said...:

    "The right times" clearly wasn't EU times though. I missed the spike when I slept.

  1. Samski said...:

    I was late getting on the band waggon for this so have lost out a little but still managing to turn a profit from some of the stuff suggested in your other posts :)

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