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I thought of something today, and I believe it's a piece of a larger puzzle. Every time there are new events released to Guild Wars 2, which has been a consistent feature of the game so far, certain items spike in price. That's the assumption, but for the latest event I decided to test my theory with runes.
Remember how I talked about making lots of gold from combining runes? Here is one such way to get your runes cheap and then take advantage of combining them.
Prior to February of this year, most major runes were below 3 silver 50 copper buy orders. I frequently snagged them for around 3.4 silver then combined to gamble for superior runes. However, over the course of March to June, the price steadily increased to over 4 silver buy orders. What's more, the price of superior runes hasn't really changed for over a year.
So you have this strange buy order adjustment of 50 copper over the course of the past few events. My assumption is that we won't see another event after Dragon Bash until Halloween. It's a speculative guess, but regardless, here's how I am going to play based on it:
I will place buy orders on as many major runes as I can, in large amounts of 250-1000 per rune, the moment I notice prices starting to dip again. Since I don't know when the next event will be, I'll have to adjust my buy orders as the prices continue to dip. Then when the time comes, I will have a big stockpile of superior runes for players during Halloween or an unknown event beforehand.
But here's the thing: I don't care about when I sell them. All I know is that combining major runes when the price is this high remains unprofitable, but previously it was relatively low risk.
I mentioned that this was part of a larger puzzle. There are indeed additional markets which react in the same fashion. Have you found any?
I was away for a few days attending to family/personal matters, and as you can imagine the old inbox started to get pretty full. Here are a bunch of questions that came in along with my (hopefully) helpful answers. Thanks everyone for these and all the other questions I received. I figured these 6 would be the most helpful to everyone as a whole.
Trading Post Question #1:
"How much silver should each item I buy and sell be.. I feel like 80c-1s profits aren't enough to achieve what you talked about in your 500 g a month post.what's your recommended profit?"
If you are selling stacks of 250 items worth 1s each in profit, then you would be making 2 gold 12 silver and 50 copper per full stack sold.
I am assuming that you have had success flipping items, so now you want to make more than whatever you currently are. May I also assume that you're flipping low level armor or something requires a lot of time placing buy orders? Try reducing the number of items you place buy orders on but increasing the size of the orders. That way it's faster to sort them in your bags, place the orders, list for sale, etc.
Sometimes it's about the small profit margins, even just one copper, where you can make the most money. Try to balance time invested, profit earned, and risk to find the best markets, not necessarily just profit per flip.
Trading Post Question #2:
If you got them for super cheap compared to the listing price (in other words you don't mind taking the 5% fee for re-listing) then I would advise cancelling your lot and just posting 5 for sale. If they sell, re-post another 5. Also, pay close attention to your market over the course of several days. I bet you that numerous people will see the truffle steak dinner (just as you did) and try to temporarily take control of the market. You don't know if they are actually selling until you see the money coming back to you ;)
Do your research and look at gw2spidy as well as gold wars 2 so you know if you're buying below the average price or possibly losing money by paying too much!
Trading Post Question #3:
You have to use the trading post unfortunately, but maybe this upcoming Halloween you will be able to get it for much cheaper. Think about it this way: will you be able to earn 220 gold before October? Also, will you be pissed if October comes and all your gold has been spent on a now cheap item?
If you do buy the item before Halloween, hold on to it just in case ArenaNet doesn't make it available like last year. That would REALLY increase the price.
Trading Post Question #4:
"First: I appreciate your effort and want to thank you for your work you are putting in to the gw2 trading post site.
Here my question:
I would speculate that dragon coffers will continue to fall in price until a few days before the event ends, should I at that point buy them in high numbers? I assume they will rise significantly in price as they have a chance for the dragon tickets. At the same time I should sell the zhaitaffy before the big price drop when they remove the NPCs or trade them for the consumables as they aren't available anymore after the event...
You see I like speculating, do you see any flaws in my theories?
Some feedback would be highly appreciated.
Thanks anyway :)"
This happened with the greatsword skins I believe, as well as the halloween candy. Definitely worth a try if you have the gold to spare! Try not to invest everything in one strategy though, and by that I mean, slowly sell the items off once you can make money. It's called dollar cost averaging. Look it up!
Trading Post Question #5:
Incredibly interesting theory! Most likely this food will rise to get closer to omnom food once it becomes more rare. And in turn, omnom food will go down while we wait for that to happen.
Trading Post Question #6:
Slow selling items typically can only handle 1-3 at a time, but fast moving ones can be as crazy as 1,000+ at a time. I generally only do that with items that make 1-2 copper profit after fees.
I was trading yesterday morning stacks of 250 copper ore at 12 copper buy order and 15 copper sell order. There were huge walls up at 11 and 16 copper, so this was relatively easy to maintain. That usually happens too with markets like this, where two big walls form between price points just enough to allow for small profits to the undercutters.
Even though I was placing 1000 buy orders every few minutes, they still were bought out and the previous lot sold like clockwork.
Now, is this worth the time? It takes me around 8 seconds to place my buy orders. Maybe another 4 seconds to sell. HINT: If you spam click you can get more than one buy order at a time for the price you wanted.
So yeah, it's worth the time (assuming you play additional markets instead of camping this one), but what I want you to get out of this is not that Copper Ore is profitable once in a while. The point is to learn how to spot walls that you can play around with.
See those walls? Those are a good thing.
This is my tried and true method for acquiring 1,500 gold every three months. So basically that's one five hundred gold per month for those keeping tabs at home. It's a super simple method, and it combines a bunch of principles we've seen covered on this blog already. Namely:
1. Identify a market that has a large gap between highest/lowest price throughout the week and has steady demand.
2. Buy low, sell normal.
3. Place buy orders when the price is high, place sell orders when the price is low (I thought this was crazy at first, but it's WORKING).
4. Under/Over cut walls of items to avoid having to wait multiple "market cycles" before your products sell.
5. Be patient. It can take days to both fill and sell orders.
6. Don't worry about buying too much, but do worry about posting too much. Unless of course you have bag space issues, in which case then you should worry about over purchasing inventory.
7. Competition is meaningless when it comes to the fast moving markets. The wave of millions of players makes up for whatever dreams a few people have from playing monopoly too much with their younger siblings.
8. Use the average price on GW2spidy to your advantage. It's around 16 silver. I'll let you use your brain to determine when you should buy and sell from there.
Which market did I play to make this much gold? Unidentified Dyes.
How much did I make? Well 500 gold per month was a good estimate, but usually 20-50 gold PROFIT per two days. Some days are good, others the price never gets high enough for me to sell. It's quite random but dry spells are super rare. If you stick with it and learn to play the game, you'll do quite well.
How many of you have actually gone through the process of identifying, testing, and successfully making gold from markets with GW2Spidy? Please comment below if you have. Details of your exploits (or lack there of) are nice but not necessary.
I did a post recently on how to read GW2Spidy graphs simply. The most important point I made was the capability to REMOVE lines you didn't wish to see. This significantly helps with the reading of the charts. You can also change how many days/weeks/months you wish to view at once, and since there are less lines to calculate this process is much faster than with them all turned on. Using gw2spidy to find deals has also been discussed at length on our Private Forums in various example markets and debates.
While it is easier to find markets to make gold using Gold Wars 2, GW2Spidy is pretty damned good (and a great complimentary tool) once you get the hang of it. You can spot recurring trends over the course of the past year, and I'm relatively surprised at how difficult this appears to be for most people.
Remember, the middle value (left column of values on each chart) has the average price of the item over the time you're looking at. If you ever see prices rise 15% higher or 15% lower it is time to sell or buy respectively. That's a very easy way to use the tool. Just look at the price of a commonly traded item (like a crafting material) over the course of the past month, jot down the average value and check throughout the day to see if it's time to buy or sell.
Give this a shot, and please report back with your findings either on this post, the forums, or in later posts when the subject resurfaces! Email works too!
Happy 2000 readers day everyone. Thank you very much for subscribing to the blog feed and/or gold tips newsletter! Playing the trading post is fun and rewarding, if you know what you're doing. Today I'm going to walk you through much of what you need to know in order to start experiencing the Trading Post Game, as a game, instead of as a chore.
For starters, I want you to listen to this podcast. Towards the end of my segment (first half), I literally walked the hosts through making gold from trading low level armor. You MUST listen to this if you're new to trading as it should fill in lots of gaps as well as show you a clear cut strategy for making money.
Next, I want you to read this post on flipping. By far it's my most popular post on the blog, and probably the reason why Garlic will never be profitable ever again :( /Cry !
There's also a great post I did which summarized 50 different items you could start flipping for profit. Pay attention to the types of items, as you can then go off on your own and find more, similar ones.
OK, so far so good. But this is the part where I lose most people. They go off and they make some gold but they feel that it took too much of their time placing buy orders, listing items (especially moving unstackable armor), and repeating the process. Even if they buy on monday and sell on friday (like I've suggested many times on this blog), things still end up becoming too time consuming.
If this describes you, then you're not lost. You are actually one step away from total success on the trading post. But one thing I've learned from studying people (I sell lots of digital products online, including the forum here, so I know people rather well), is that they always take the easy way out. Like water flowing over rocky ground, people pick the fastest and shortest available path. At this point, you will either take that easy route, which implies finding other strategies and get rich quick schemes, or you will try something new for a change.
Since I presume you're up for the challenge, your next step is optimization. This is SUPPOSED to be fun, and it is, if you keep the right mentality. Your goal here is to make gold faster, and to do that you need to focus on four key areas:
How much you pay.
How much time you spend buying.
How much you sell for.
How much time you spend selling.
On the forums there have been numerous posts to help you work on optimizing your trading post game. But I can boil most of the advice down to this: Question everything you do. Look at how much you pay for something and consider if you could place buy orders at different times. This implies that you study both free websites like gw2spidy and paid ones like goldwars2. Optimize everything, from how many buy orders you place, to how many items you list for sale. EVERYTHING can be made better, just like you can always discover new strategies. The trick is to build a sort of portfolio of go to methods for making gold, without losing track of the ones that worked in the past (very frequently old methods become popular within a month of them losing their profit potential).
Avoid over speculation at all costs. I know I talk about it a lot, but when I do, I'm not telling you to put all of your gold into any one prediction. People see golden dollar signs and they go crazy. Don't think for a second that I want you to do that.
Playing the trading post is all about understanding the flow of the market, and how people think when they see numbers. You can tip the scales in your favor with larger undercuts and basically playing smarter. You don't always have to go by a single copper! This is especially true for very expensive items. Buy low, sell normal. That's what I say for every game I play!
Thanks again for subscribing, and please let me know what you'd like me to talk about on the blog. Either comment below or send me an email!
I don't know if anyone else is noticing, probably not due to the Dragon craziness going on, but unidentified dyes are at the lowest they have been in like two months! I'm getting as many buy orders as I can in now because I know it won't be long before dyes hit 20 silver again. Keep in mind that this isn't for weak stomachs, as a single buy order of 250 dyes costs around 38 gold right now. But if things pan out as I hope they will, then each stack will turn into 42.5 gold after fees.
When you pay attention to a handful of markets very closely, especially ones like Unidentified Dyes which always seem to perform well, then you too will be able to pick up on these kinds of deals.
I use Gold Wars 2 to track my top sellers, and it's one of my favorite features on the site. That and the list of good sellers which comes with the tool. Great starting point for new people but also a way for old timers like me to check if they have their basis covered. Understanding supply and demand is key to your success, which thankfully Gold Wars 2 also takes into account!
How Gold Wars 2 Makes You GoldHere are the steps to how Gold Wars 2 saves you time searching for the best deals on the Trading Post...
- Step 1: Gold Wars robots analyze the ENTIRE TRADING POST every 10 minutes.
- Step 2: You search for items by using the intelligently designed "search form."
- Step 3: Get results for your search instantly, including important information regarding flipping potential.
If you've used other guild wars 2 scrapers in the past then you're probably on the fence about getting Gold Wars 2. You obviously believe (and who wouldn't?) that the free scrapers out there would have this information already. But you're wrong; as the Gold Wars 2 team of designers constantly updates and adapts new ideas to their tool. Unlike the free services out there, these guys are getting paid to work, which is a far better incentive! In fact, Gold Wars 2 was the first professionally designed guild wars 2 scraper tool for analyzing markets for the purpose of turning a profit. Although gw2spidy existed first, it did not have the bells and whistles already present on Gold Wars 2, and it continues to lag far behind when it comes to earning gold. You can help support this project and amazingly powerful tool as their team improves search algorithms, stat collection, and features for Gold Wars 2.
Many of the forum members have contributed with ideas for improving this tool. Thank you everyone for your ideas as almost all have been incorporated in some way already! The Gold Wars 2 team has thanked us many times for our criticisms and requests for new functionality. It is probably the number one reason this tool is so far ahead of the competition (both free and paid).
"Hi thanks for all the tips on the blog they were very useful in getting
me started. I am now at a point where I quite enjoy spending a bit of
time meddling on the TP each session and I am even making a decent
I received an email yesterday, and I'll paraphrase the question:
"When I salvage 18 rares I seem to make a 40 silver to 1 gold profit, but when I try to salvage 100 of them the next day I am losing money. Why?"
There are numerous reasons for why this is failing, and some of them might surprise you.
Scenario #1: Simple Mathematics
Random is random, but when you play a small number of times then it is possible to see incredible success. This success is much higher than the average amount of profit (or loss) you'd make playing the salvage game long term. So if you are meant to get around 1 gold per 100 tries and you only make 10 attempts, you could get lucky and make like 2 gold. But if you were to go another 90 times you should end up making around that 1 gold. Truly profitable strategies make you gold over the long haul, not just randomly if you're lucky.
Next time you go to the casino, quit the moment you're ahead. You want to do this because often times you have a pretty decent chance to win, but it's lower than 50%. So you'll win after a few tries and end up with more money than you started, but if you continue playing than mathematically you will slowly lose everything. Same goes for salvaging these rares.
Scenario #2: Salvage Trends
People salvage for the achievement, but they also salvage for profit. Whenever the salvaged goods become profitable then people will buy up all the cheap rares until the price matches the salvaged goods price. You did not mention the actual cost of the rares. Were they higher on day 2 compared to day 1? Also, were the salvaged items less profitable on day 2? Odds are that is exactly what happened.
Scenario #3: Online Speculation
A lot of websites, especially this one, cause changes in the marketplace by mentioning items, events, patches, etc. Sometimes you will stumble upon the effects of one of these sites. If you do notice something odd, google the item for the past 48 hours and see if something pops up! Use keywords like speculation, gw2, trading post, etc.
How do you prevent getting screwed by the randomness of salvaging? Do the math on your odds of success and pay attention to not just the price of the rares but also the items they turn into! I use crude salvage kits as well to save on the cost (bought with karma).
Omnomberry Compote is probably the best healing buff food for pvp currently, and it certainly is popular at the moment on websites within the community. I've seen the recipes themselves selling rather quickly, so that might be an opportunity as well as straight up crafting Omnomberry Compote.
You can place buy orders on omnomberries and directly purchase the bags of sugar.
1 berry + 1 bag = omnomberry compote.
At the time of this post, you would make 10 copper per omnomberry compote sold.
Obviously, things are going to get tight now that I've posted this, so don't be surprised if things change for the short term. But rest assured, it will make you gold later on when the market self corrects and people get bored of this method (like everything I post on here). Right now, I expect the price of compotes to go down and the price of omnomberries to go up. Bags of sugar won't move too much, maybe 1 copper at most.
Lesson from this: if websites mention something being popular or "the best" for any aspect of the game, then go craft and sell for a profit.
But also learn from previous mistakes and tweak your crafting. Find ways to get items cheaper and also avoid over-posting to the point of having to cancel in order to sell fast enough.
It is true that individuals can have a massive impact on the economy, but the will of the many is far superior to even the richest trading post gurus. When millions are playing, their collective decisions are what make you gold, not your Ebeneser-Scrooge-Tycoon-Style-Monopolizing.
Instead of looking for markets to "control" or "dominate", look for other ones you can ride all day long for easy money.
Take, for example, my post on platinum ore. That was a great example of just riding a good thing. I didn't sit there and try to create walls for people to undercut then buy them out (I probably should have in retrospect and bought everyone out lol) because I was more concerned about riding the market like a surfer rides a wave. But the moment you think a market is yours, a thousand people arrive and destroy it for you. I don't care if you have thousands of gold, it isn't enough to control most good markets (believe me). Maybe some shady low level weapon market, but the reward isn't worth the time spent controlling such things.
Eventually that wave becomes a small ripple and you move back out to the ocean for another wave. This is how you should place when you're looking for investment opportunities, not massive speculating on patches or whatnot. There is a place for that, and there is also a portion of your money that can go to such activities, but don't go crazy and invest everything in the next "wave."
TLDR: Controlling markets long term is foolish, short term is occasionally profitable but high risk.