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Back to Basics Because They Work!

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Written by Murven
 
In order to make some money from the trading post, it is important to plan ahead of time what your goal is concerning profit.

In most cases the market is really competitive and whenever a new niche shows up it is quickly invaded by competitors trying to make a profit out of the same product.

Instead of hoping for the best and attempting to extract the biggest profit possible out of a transaction, only to be undercut later by another competitor losing momentum and holding your transactions trapped in the trading post indefinitely, you should plan ahead of time how much profit is your goal and pursue that regardless of the actual gap in prices.

So, let's say - for example - that you would like to have a 35% profit in your transaction. Just for clarification, I am making this number up, so do not make it a rule, this percentage may be too high or too low depending on your investment and how competitive the market is, but I will use for illustration purposes.

So in order to get a 35% profit you need to account for the fact that the trading post will charge you 15% in total for your transaction. This means that you will only receive 85% of the price you sell your items for.

This means that you need to sell your times at a price "x" so that 85% of x equals your investment ("y") plus 35%.

Mathematically you can express that this way:

x => x * 0.85 = y * 1.35

x = y * 1.35 / 0.85

x = y * 1.59

And now you have your golden rule of pricing your items:

"When you buy at price 'y' you need to sell at y times 1.59 to have a 35% profit"

This means that if you bought a piece of equipment for 1 silver, which is equivalent to 100 copper, when you apply your golden rule, you get:

x = 100 * 1.59 = 159c = 1s 59c

So, in order to get a 35% profit, you should sell at 1s 59c when buying at 1s.

Even if the gap in the trading post says your item can be sold for 2 or 3 silver, you should not fall for that trap, simply sell it at 1s 59c.

This strategy will guarantee you a quicker sell, will minimize the chance of undercutting by your naive competitors who are only looking for a 200% profit deal and will also make it easy for you to calculate your return of investment rate over time.

It will also make it incredibly easy for you to make your calculations on the fly just by looking at the gap and making a single operation in your calculator.

I hope this is useful for anyone who is starting to plan their strategy for the Guild Wars 2 trading post.

Solo 5 Gold Per Hour

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Written by Draco.

To do this, head over to Lornar's Pass and run the map to get all the gatherings. This is a 25-40 level map. Between the random loot drops and the gatherings, you should net about 5 gold an hour.
The key to this is are the gatherings. These are mostly Fir Trees that yield Hard Wood Logs and Platinum Ore nodes.  You should also gather the various Herbs and Taproots that add some decent value to your yield as well. Personally I would pass on the Scallions that give Green Onions and the Mushrooms. Both have little value at this time.

You will run into some trash mobs that can drop salvageable trophies that give you Linen & Cotton Scraps as well as standard loot that you can salvage as well.

Add some Magic Find and Gathering boosts you can increase your yield as well.

Running Lornar's Pass you will run into a few events that you can take advantage of as well as Crested Raptors.

I understand there are other ways to make 5+ gold an hour running Dungeons, or certain Map Trains. But for a change of pace, or if your characters aren't ready for either of those, this is a fun alternative. If you haven't been there since your World Completion many moons ago, head on back there to make some decent gold and have some fun.

Helping out a few lower level players won't hurt any either, and I'm sure they would appreciate it as well.

[Personal Post] Help Get Fright Light onto Steam

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Hi everyone, if you'd like to skip this person post you can go to the latest GW2 article Candy Corn Profit.

I created a game recently called Fright Light. As you can see by the video below (WARNING: CONTAINS CURSING), it's a somewhat scary first person game. If I can get enough votes on Steam then it will be available for PC users to purchase. At the moment it's available on XBOX 360 and there is a PC demo available under the announcements on the Fright Light Steam Page.

Making games is my one true passion, and I think having a game creator's mindset is what led me to discovering so many successful tricks and strategies in Guild Wars 2. Please help me make that passion a reality by getting Fright Light "Greenlit"!

Here's the video but, let me warn you again, there is cursing in here so please only view if you're OK with scared people yelling curses at their TV's!

Candy Corn Profit

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Written by: Flaixman.

As everyone knows, the halloween event has just finished, and have left tons of pieces of candy corn in the TP.
 
All of them costs about 17c each, what makes it 1,7 G each candy corn.

There are 2 ways of making profit, 1 fast and 1 long term.

Fast one:

By the time I'm writing this, the candy corn cob is 2g each, and the piece of candy corn is 19 copper instant buy or 15 if you make an offer, so if you manage to get 4 stacks of pieces of candy corn and convert them to candy corn cob at sonder the seller (in lions arch), you can it, you can get fast profit of the candy corn (but not that much).


Long Term:

WE have to ask a question of ourselves, What can we do with the Pieces of Candy corn and candy corn cob?

The answer is easy: 20 slot bags. But you'll say, flaixman, those bags are account bound, and you can't sell them.

And my response to that statement is that we don't want to sell the 20 slot bags, we want to keep the pieces of candy corn and the candy corn cob. Why?

1-20 slot bags costs 12g each at the trading post.
2-1 Halloween slot bag costs 3 candy corn cobs, that are 2 gold each bought instantly, or 1,5-1,6 g each. What makes each bag costs between 4,5 and 6 gold (that's 6-7,5 gold less than the others EACH ONE).
3-What it's going to happen next weeks-months? This:

Everyone who wants a 20 slot bag will stop crafting them and is going to stop buying them from the tp. What are they going to do? Buy them from candy corn cob, so the price of the pieces of candy corn and candy corn cob are going to rise much more than now, and they are going to grow fast up to the 33 c per piece of candy corn or 3g33s33c per candy corn cob (these prices are the ones that make the price of each bag 10g each). So every piece of candy corn and candy corn cob that you buy now, it's going to increase drastically it's value, so selling them some weeks-months from on now, will report you a great profit.


Another way to make instant gold is, if you have some 20 slot bags in possesion, sell them and buy some with candy corn, that will grant you 5-6 gold per bag change.

Ugly Profits

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Written by Draco.

I mentioned in my Halloween Post to start buying the Ugly's:
- Ugly Wool Socks
- Ugly Wool Hats
- Ugly Wool Sweaters

Now let me introduce you to the Gifts of Wintersday:
- Small Wintersday Gift
- Medium Wintersday Gift
- Large Wintersday Gift

If ANET does what they did during Halloween, and just regurgitate last years event, then these items are going to make anyone who buys in now, a lot of gold!
Here is how your going to profit if you follow these simple steps.

Last year you can exchange:
- 8 socks for a small gift, 10 socks for a medium gift or 12 socks for a large gift.
- 5 Hats for a small gift, 8 hats for a medium gift or 10 hats for a large gift.
- 3 sweaters for a small gift, 6 sweaters for a medium gift or 8 sweaters for a large gift.

Doing some simple math you will see for example if you buy 8 socks for 33 copper each that comes out to 2.64 silver. The current bid for the small gift is currently over 4 silver! The offer is close to 6 silver!

If you work out the costs of each socks, hats and sweaters, and compare them to the value of the small, medium and large Wintersday gifts, you will see that the Ugly's are greatly undervalued right now.
I would buy as many of the Ugly's you can afford and hold them till Wintersday starts and then convert your Ugly's into the gifts that give you the best profit. I am projecting making 3-4 times my gold investment.

Last year the small gift went to about 10 silver, the medium gifts went to about 12.5 silver, and the large went to about 70 silver per!

Do the math, just don't take too long, you might miss out on the better prices of the Ugly's!

Good Luck and happy Holidays.

9 Tips for the Casual Gold Maker

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Written by Beren

Hi my name is Beren, I have been playing guild wars 1 and 2 for years. I am not a hardcore economy player but i do have a few things i do every time i log in and it makes gold every time. So i want to share how i play how and make money without flipping 1000's of items each day. When i play most of my time is split between world vs world or the latest events, that leaves me little time to go about farming, flipping or indeed doing the research needed to speculate. So with that in mind; below i will cover the few things i do and how i get good results

Tips for making gold for the casual player.
 
  1. Every causal player should have cooking as a crafting skill, the other skill does not matter. Cooking is the cheapest to level (also fastest) and has the most consistent money making items.
  2. If you are leveling salvage most of the loots you get along the way, some items like linen and cotton are worth loads.
  3. If you at lvl 60+ keep the green items you get. This is important if you karma train in EOTM or in zones and fill up fast. Use them in the mystic forge for the chance to get rares. (avg sell price for greens is 2-3 silver each, average price for a rare is 35-40 silvers with some items like great swords going for 60-80 silvers) i try to keep greatswords, bows,staves rifles etc.  
  4. Do the hearts that give you access to karma produce in bulk (lemons, peaches, black beans etc) more on this latter.
  5. Find a few items that sell quickly for a good profit and make them when you can and sell on the weekends. (hint mango pies)
  6. Place buy orders through the week and sell orders before the weekend.
  7. use your badges,karma and skill points to make money when you can.
  8. some vendor cooking items can be bought of the TP cheaper than from the vendor (starch etc)
  9. Use http://gw2profit.aws.af.cm/ to find items that you can craft and sell to buy orders.

Here some further detail of some of the things above. 
Cooking is faster to level and it is very cheap compared to the other skills. It also has some of the highest turn over in terms of items on the TP. With the hearts it allows you some of the best karma to gold ratios in the game. (look here : Normal Guides: Cooking - Top 5 Hearts - Guild War 2 Crafting Guide )

There is a lot of ways to turn karma, badges and skill points into gold, they require some maths but a simple one is : Use your badges to get arrow cart blueprints, then use your skillpoints to turn  them into superior arrow carts. this is quick, easy and makes you money every time.  Other ways to make gold with karma and skillpoints include, buy karma items and combine in the MF and salvage. 

You can also look at making lodestones with skill points and cores however this requires a reasonable amount of investment to do in large enough numbers. It also requires lots of clicking.

Let me know your thoughts,

Beren.

Mmmm Piece of Candy!

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Written by Denny:
 
Related to trending GW2 event nowadays, we find something are oversupplied like skull chattering, piece of candy corn, nougat center and trick-or-treat bags. The most of my fave between those item is candy corn and bags.
 
 

First, Piece of Candy Corn is the most demanded by peoples and more applicable for future outside of the event. The price should be 33-34 bronze at perfect market (this if i count 10g for a 20 slot bag : 3000pcs Candy Corn because this is the main item obtainable beside event). But the market is crazy, used to rosing till 1,5 silver. This happen before the consumeable recipe using Candy Corn release. This might rosing more + with extra inflation of online gaming that always happens (we could say inflation based by gem price at gem store we put it like gold in real life). In short the price of Candy Corn while im writting this is 18-19 bronze bid price. you can bid more lower price like 14- 15 bronze in near future if the supply keep like this and put it your guild stash if u have, if u dont have, build it now to dump 50x250 candy corn. What really annoys me so much, why the price rosing 30-50% right before the event started. So my target price to buy is around 14-16 bronze and dump it till 33 bronze, 1 silver, or back to 1,5s or more cause of inflation. Let say the worst case we bought it at 18 bronze, and we sell it 33 bronze each, with that calculation and fee charged the profit is 10,05 bronze ea and your net margin is 55%. If u might sell way more higher price, well congrats for the profit. So... dont afraid with price keep declining by oversupply, I think it is favorable for us to buying and keeping it and dont sell it in large number after the event to keep us low profile and more hold back the supply. 50 guild stash cost less than 25g if you fulling it with candy corn, low budget gambling to catch a good fortune, might be 100g in not near future.

Second, What I do these days is helping oversupplying bags and keep the other loot in hand while the event. I mostly farming bags. Few of em I open it for AP, mostly I sell it in TP like 5,3s recently, when i sell it first time event started is like 7s. If you lazy enough to farming door and roaming around Labyrinth, you could buy vial of maize balm. This Maize balm could transform an ambient/s to a candy monster with 3 recharge per using and the monster 100% drop a bag (only 1, not more like the real mob in labyrinth). the strategy is you can go to Borderlands SE camp, throw it to some chickens. 1 Throw will hit 2 chicken and there is 6 chicken would be transformed to candy monster (count first before you throw it to the chicks). You will get 6 bag x 5 silver, minus fee, minus cost of balm like 7-9silver and at least 17silver at hand.

Patience Mad King

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Article by Jayne:

They say patience is a virtue, and even with the rampant craziness of the Mad King’s Festival, the saying rings true. Chattering Skulls, Nougat Centers and Plastic Fangs are dropping in abundance from the Mad King’s Labyrinth and the influx of Trick-or-Treat bags it gives, cluttering up our inventories and taking up precious bank slots. At first glance from the Trading Post, it might seem like a no-brainer to convert all of those festive materials into their higher-quality equivalents.

Take the festive skulls, for example. Selling a Gibbering Skull for 2 gold in comparison to getting a mere 44 copper for the Chattering variety? Seems like a pretty sweet deal, right?

Stop. Think. Do the maths. Don’t be tempted by what seems like the lure of immediate coin.

The fact is that even at 44 copper, it’s better to sell the 1000 Chattering Skulls it would take to create a Gibbering Skull rather than convert it. Doing that will net you around 4 gold instead, and that’s from selling it in the middle of the Hallowe’en event when the materials are widely available.

After doing a bit of digging on GW2Spidy, it’s even more apparent that holding on to the materials that drop is the better option – even with the dip in prices that comes from people flooding the market after the festival ends, last year they steadily rose again until they averaged out at about 1 silver each, and I suspect it might be the case again this year. Just think how much more coin that’s going to bring in over the long term!

I’ll hold my hands up and admit that I nearly fell into the trap of converting these materials to sell, so hopefully this stops the rest of you from making the same mistake!

Start "Flipping Burgers"

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Written by Jayhawk.

Anything worth doing or worth knowing starts with an entry level position and learning how to be effective on the Trading Post is no different. Yes, there are quicker paths to the top but that requires more understanding than most people initially have. Most of that understanding isn't even about the game and the markets, it's about yourself and the way you look at, act on and think about trading.

I am a rather conservative trader. I want "sure things" and want to do that sure thing as much as possible. I branch out occasionally and sometimes find a new "sure thing" to add to the list however I have been burnt far more when I acted outside of my nature -- trying to get the "quick flip", speculating on markets and trying to time the patches and holidays right. I realize I'm just not that guy.

You need to find out what kind of trader you are and the best place to start is by being conservative, doing the entry-level flipping and branching out from there. In short, the best place to start is by "Flippin' Burgers".

Take a look at a month view of Hamburgers from GWSpidy2.com



You'll notice that we can buy Hamburgers for 2c and sell them for 15c netting us 10c profit after fees. (http://tpcalc.com is a great resource to do the math for you).

You should also notice that Hamburgers have been over 30c at least 3 times during this month view and consistently jump over 20c. So, what's your "sure thing"? What's your risky? What's your crazy-aggressive?

HOMEWORK: Buy 300 Hamburgers at 2c or 3c and sell 100 at three different prices that you would label "sure", "risky" and "crazy" and see what you feel most comfortable with. Make at least 1 gold in profit from flipping burgers and then post in the comments for this article what your prices were. Then, tell a friend how easy it was to make 1 gold and send them to this blog. If there's enough interest, I'll come up with another easy and profitable "assignment".

-Jayhawk

What to Do With Stockpiles of Mithril

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Written by Jayne:

What do you do with a hoard of mithril?

Most of us who’ve been playing the game for a while will have a huge stockpile of mithril ore cluttering up our materials tab, and possibly even a few bank slots. With the ore itself selling for less than 30 copper at the time of writing, it seems largely worthless, right?

Wrong.

If you have your armorsmithing discipline levelled to 325, there’s some money to be made from that apparently worthless metal.

18-slot fine boxes may not seem the most lucrative of markets, but they’re fairly consistent in pricing. They tend to shift within a couple of hours of listing, although if you want to avoid undercutting it’s best to list them in small clusters of two or three. The two you want to be paying attention to are the 18-slot equipment boxes and the 18-slot safe boxes, which require the following:

1) 10 Mithril Ingots 2)  1 Greater Rune of Holding (bought for 2g from the armorsmithing vendor)
3) 3 Large Scales or Piles of Incandescent Dust (currently 3s 35 and 1s 33 respectively from the TP)

A word of caution – the scales and incandescent dust can fluctuate in price (sometimes rising as high as 4 silver per unit!) so be careful when buying and remember to adjust the numbers accordingly.

Using the prices at the time of writing, you’d need to list equipment boxes for a minimum of 2g 47s and the safe boxes for 2g 40s to break even after trading post fees. They generally sell around the 2g 60s mark - that’s a profit of between 10-20 silver per box, and I’ve seen them sell for more than that in the past.

A side note for leatherworkers – this also works with 18-slot oiled packs, which require thick leather squares and 3 large bones (3s 38 each) in place of the scales and dust. They’re currently selling for 3g 30s, which gives you a nice 70 silver profit per bag!

So, if you’re looking for a way to de-clutter your collection of tier 5 salvage materials and make some money in the process, there’s plenty to be made in crafting.

Real Players Paid to Play GW2

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Hello everyone! Thank you so much for visiting this blog. Recently I have taken a serious interest in creating my own video games (namely on the xbox360 but now also for steam). While this means that my attention is driven away from the Guild Wars 2 economy temporarily, I don't want to reduce the content production on this blog.

Several writers have come forward and submitted articles, as well as gotten paid for them! The articles have earned between $10 and $30 each, and I really hope this incentive creates a greater number of people to step forward and write for this blog.

Speculation, current strategies, gold making basics, etc. All are good fits for this blog and you don't have to be rich in game! Common sense is not so common for the newer players, and so I often post basic information with a new twist for the more experienced demographics.

Please go here to see rules for submitting articles. You can always ask me questions as well.

If you could show support for my latest game, One Night Two Crazies, that would be awesome!

Try for free on XBOX360.

Please vote yes on Steam.

Hilarious compilation video of people playing on youtube.

Thank you all,

Markco

Understanding Black Lion Weapon Spikes

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Daniel asked:
 
"Hi Markco,
The patch today got me wondering about a trend with Black Lion Weapons. When the Chaos skins were pushed up to 5 tickets and the new Tempest weapons were introduced, the Chaos skins went up in price by a few dozen gold. I'm thinking this is probably the case whenever a patch with weapon skins comes out, but how long does this spike last? Does the value of the weapons continue to increase or is it just a temporary thing? Thanks."

Good question Daniel. Allow me to answer by providing the timetable for almost all price "spikes" in the game: Guild Wars 2's News Cycle.

The faster players find out about new skins, the sooner they will buy them. So when a new patch goes live on a Friday, odds are most people will have found out by Sunday afternoon. You will then have until around a week to two weeks before everyone has bought the skin they wanted and moved on to the next thing they're chasing.

Only a small fraction of players pay close attention to the Guild Wars 2 home page, news related sites, patch notes, videos, etc. The sooner you discover that players WILL WANT SOMETHING, the sooner you can take advantage of the situation. Predicting what will happen after an unknown (like a patch) comes out is very tricky, but spotting a news story as it's occurring or about to occur is easy provided that you pay attention to the Guild Wars 2 News Cycle.

Even with holiday events, I find that the buzz surrounding new items dies around a month later. Luckily, GW2 is always adding new items and features to keep people chasing the proverbial carrot on a stick. What's cool about the devs' process is that they keep reusing old materials instead of always reintroducing new ones (like world of warcarft did with each expansion). This allows you to play long term markets like silver ore, leather, etc because you can realistically expect the devs to eventually raise their price with patches.

Small Tips for Big Halloween Profits

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(Written by Draco)

Happy changing of the seasons to everyone.  This time of the year (as you can all see) mean only one thing; Halloween Time. For GW2 is almost time for new events and hopefully a lot of new fun items for us all. This means to the speculators that we should be buying some items in preparation for these events.

Here is what I have been stocking up on all summer:

1- Pieces of Candy Corn - I have a strange feeling that these are going to be needed for something new ANET is going to offer for this event and it will center around this item. Not sure if it’s a recipe or trade in type of deal, but I have been buying a lot of them expecting something interesting. Buy them now and watch the price rise over the next 30 days!

2- Chattering Skulls - Possible some interesting new recipes using these.

3- Plastic Fangs - Loved them as a child, those wax teeth you can chew till the sun came up. Just wish there was more flavor. Well, I'm hoping ANET will put some extended flavor crystals or something in these as well to make them an interesting speculation to hold a few stacks of.

4- Nougat Centers - not so big on, & I could be wrong. Grabbed a few stacks just in case.

5- Trick-or-Treat bags. I think these are going to go crazy price wise because of the potential drops this will give out. I think there will be some great treats ANET will be giving us for this Halloween event. Buy them now. If ANET does what I think they will do and offer some awesome stuff, we will be happy we have these in hand.

6 - Pristine Toxic Spore Samples - Lower on my list of speculations, but these might have something going on as well. Grabbed a few stacks just in case.

Once you have all these set aside in your storage, don't forget about them while you're having a blast with the Holiday events!

Make sure you have a bit of room aside for the next round of holiday items as well. Start watching them and try to buy them on the cheap. Here are a few to get you started:

  1. -Wintersday Gifts - Small and Large are my picks,
  2. -Snowflakes - Pristine and Flawless Flakes
  3. -The Ugly Three! That’s right, the SOCKS, HATS and SWEATERS only a mother can love seeing anyone in. I have these from shortly after last year at 3 copper each for socks and hats, and 9 copper for the sweaters.  If you see good prices, grab them now.
  4. - Choir Bells - for the amusement and enjoyable Christmas Carrols in the cities.
  5. - Drop of Magic Glue - might want watch these. This with a few other items made minis last year.

Hope you all have a fun Halloween Event season all.

[Personal Post] Eternal Nightmare XBOX 360 Game

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I've created my second XBOX 360 game and have two more on the way. I am having so much fun creating these games! If you have no interest in learning about Eternal Nightmare, please take a look at the latest Guild Wars 2 Post: Farming Low Level Items.




This is probably the most difficult game I've ever made, but it's also the most fun! Up to four people can play and die together (you get bonuses to team damage and lives for multiplayer). I hope that at least a few people get to experience the end boss, as I put a lot of work into all his different attack patterns. Overall the bosses are a highlight throughout and I'm constantly changing the types of enemies you face so that you cannot get comfortable. Probably the coolest aspect of this game is the leveling system, which enables you to create very different characters by the end.

Game Description:

"You're tired of having your hand held and mindlessly stomping your enemies. What if a new game came along that required a mastery of both your wits and reflexes? You long for shooting, platforming, leveling up, epic fights and a real challenge. These are your thoughts as you fall asleep, unaware that an evil nightmare is slowly creeping into your sub conscious..."
Go check it out if you have XBOX 360 under Indie Games New Releases, and please rate Eternal Nightmare.

Big money farming low level areas

4 comments

This is a time sensitive post. Get in while you can!

(written by Draco)

Slabs of Poultry Meat are going for about 9 silver at this writing.

You can get this drop from low level areas. Fast kills equals fast drops and move on to the next ones.

How to get them:

  • Crimson Moa's
  • Green Moa's
  • Golden Moa's
  • Blue Moa's
  • Raptors
  •  Light Treat Bag
  • Bag of Pilfered Goods
  • Small Icy Bag
I find a decent drop rate of these in level 1-15 areas.

Grab them now before the price starts to drop!

How to Sell Items on Trading Post that You Farm

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"Hi Markco,
Thanks for your blog post in response to my "where do I start" questions :)  Sorry it has taken me a while to get back to you on that... was in the middle of a move.
Quick question... when you are selling items that you get from killing mobs on the trading post and there is a huge difference between the buy order and the listing price, what do you do?  For example, the highest buy order on an item might be 10s 5c but the lowest seller listing is 50s 10c... what do you do?  In most cases, I see this for green (masterwork) items.  I have tried the -1 copper, but my item just sits there for several days and never sells.  I've been pulling it from the trading post and salvaging it and accepting the loss of coin from doing that.  I was just wondering what you would do in that case.
Thanks,

Chad"

Hey Chad, good question, and here's how you should handle the situation.

First, understand why there is a gap between buy orders and sell listings.

1. Buy orders aren't allowed to be higher (you'll just instantly purchase a cheaper sell listing.
2. There is usually between a 1-15% gap just because of the taxes on selling items. If it's more than that's a red flag that your item probably won't sell for the cheapest listing price.

So if the numbers are within 15%, sell for a copper under sell listing. Don't cancel or you'll lose 5% investment.

Conversely, if the gap between prices is more than 15%, split the difference with your listing but only sell one at a time to see if it works before selling a lot at once.

Lastly, pay attention to what things can turn into (Salvaging, Crafting, Opening, Mystic Forging). There are always alternatives to selling outright.

Secret Easter Egg in GW2 Trading Post

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"Hi Markco, I've been a member of the private forum in the past and I've read your blog for almost a year. Today I was browsing reddit and I found a tip that might help you. Go on the trading post and search "I am Evon Gnashblade" with proper punctuation and the search results will start using smaller font with less blank space to increase the number of viewable results. I'm not a hardcore TP flipper so IDK if it's will help make flipping more efficient but anyway hope you like it. Thanks for making the TP flipping blog and doing what you do, it's helped me alot.


-Aris"
 
Turns out typing "I am Evon Gnashblade" into the search bar immediately activates the Easter Egg; you don't even have to press enter!
 
Try it! :)

Simple Mystic Forge Math Anyone Can Do

1 comments

Mystic Forge Profitable Equation


You can easily figure out your profits on the forge. It is about a 1/16th chance of getting a better item. So every 16 combines you should get a better version. Every 4 failed attempts results in a 5th attempt from the created materials. So to get 16 tries you need 13 attempts (+3 attempts from failures and one successful upgrade). Take the cost of combining and multiply by 13 to get the cost to create a combined item. Now multiply the price of the upgraded item by .85. If the sell price of an upgraded item is greater than the cost to create it you will make money.


To see if you will usually win in this process, take the cheapest item you can create when combining four components and see if the math works out for that situation.

Things get more complicated when there are multiple options, some resulting in profit and others in failure. You need to do more math in these situations and look for the % chance of "winning" versus losing money. It's like playing a slot machine except now you know how to pick the one with the best odds.

500 Gold Strategy Question

1 comments

I won't be able to play today during the patch, so please post comments below about your experiences so far! While you wait for my comments, here is an interesting question from David about selling better once you have a lot of gold (500 in this case).

David asks:
"Hey Marcko, first I want to thank you for running a blog that seems to be beneficial to everyone.

Its been a big part of helping me understand both in-game economics and economic principles in general.

Ive finally gotten some decent strategies down which have gotten me up to about 500 gold ( combination of sitting on unique skins each month + high volume cheap trade).

Do you have any recommendations of what kind of goals I should be looking at to increase scale?

Basically, should I just keep increasing volume and markets I participate in? What I'm really looking for is a way to reduce clicks per day.

Thanks!"
You're at a very good place with supply and demand gouging. You know exactly when to buy skins and when to sell them.

Have you gotten to the point where you play a market whose cycle is not so easy to predict?

I like playing high volume, high volatility crafting markets, especially the ones you can obtain through salvaging and bag opening. These markets go up and down with a very loose pattern, so I don't know when I log in whether I will be buying or selling. It's less predictable, but it is far less clicking and way more fun.

The second half of what you need to figure out is whether you have to play all those markets. Can you cut back on some in order to increase profits from the others? Do some of your skins sell out faster than others? Increase those and reduce everything else! It's always good to start off selling everything to figure out what works, but now you need to move on to using that information to sell more/better.

Recap Before September 9th

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I get answered questions similar to the one below daily, and every once in a while it's good to post a thorough recap of what the blog has covered since its inception. This way I can direct new and seasoned readers to the meatiest posts that are still valid, instead of you having to vet old posts for accuracy.

Chad has the question any of you are asking when you come here for the first time:

"Hi Markco,

I was searching on Google for help in understanding how to make gold and came across your YouTube channel which led me to your site.  You have some awesome videos and the blogs are amazing.  I've only read a few posts so far, but I'm a bit overwhelmed by all the information and in some ways a little lost.  I may not have come across it yet, but do you have something for beginners that do not understand the market and could begin using to help get a better understanding?  I noticed you have a paid forum but was scared to subscribe to it because I didn't know if it would be over my head on the level of information so I've been holding off on taking that step.

I would really like to take what limited time I have on the game (work all during the day and only have a couple hours at night) and put it to good use.  From looking at your site, I think the information is there.  I just have to figure out a way to understand it and build up to some of the ideas that you post where it requires a few gold to invest to obtain a profit.

Again, awesome job on the videos and website.  Keep up the great work and thanks for sharing all your hard work!

Best Regards,

Chad"

For those who don't know the videos which Chad is referring to, I highly recommend watching them here.

Next, I highly recommend reading the Damned Gold Guide.

Followed by two quick courses on GW2Spidy:

GW2Spidy How to Read Charts
GW2 Spidy Great Market Analysis Examples

Find a few strategies on the site for flipping, such as these 50 items. That's an old post, so I would recommend using it as a starting point for finding your own markets but not an outright guide.

Use a crafting website to determine what's profitable to craft right now.

This entire process can be sped up by purchasing a forum membership and digging into the tutorials I've written under "Markco's Crazy Thoughts" on the forum. Most of these do not require a lot of gold.

If you're totally strapped for cash, consider turning your Kharma or Laurels into gold. Skill points can also be converted for big profits (see forum strategy).

Go here for a list of what to buy (and then sell) before September 9th. Keep in mind that when these items go up in value, the things they create will also rise in price. Hint. Hint.

Last Minute Item Collection Speculation

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Written by Draco.

Shopping List for Tuesday's September 9th Feature Pack

Top items to buy:

  1. Eggs
  2. Butter
  3. Onion
  4. Garlic
  5. Iron
  6. Silver
  7. Copper
  8. Jute
  9. All loot bags
With the new upcoming Items Collections system of achievements that will coming up, I believe that there will be some massive crafting upcoming.

This set of achievements will be rewarded not only with achievement points, but also reward items!

This means everyone will be going to get their tiers of achievements up as quickly as possible to get  these rewards!

Apparently there will be achievements to craft everything from armor to weapons, foods to jewelry!
Craft it, consume it, buy it or unlock the skin to get your tier's up and get rewarded!

I think not only crafting items, but opening loot bags, I'm sure opening dyes (or opening unidentified ones), consuming all types of nourishment, potions, etc.

The buy list is only the top items I'm stacking up on right now. I am sure there are a lot of others that will rise in price. Especially those that are in tight supply . Low supply means prices can get pushed up high and fast. Here I would look at Thin leather straps, some pebbles, Prickly pears, grapes , etc.

Strap yourself in for this ride, it's going to be fast and intense!

Happy trading!

Big Profits From Mini Investment

5 comments

Written by Finn.

We all know there is something big coming towards us in the September 2014 Feature Pack on the 9th of September. But until now, we could only guess what changes will be made and speculate about effects on the economy for different items.

Today, another piece of the upcoming update was revealed and it contains very specific information!

In case you didn't read it yet, here it is:

https://www.guildwars2.com/en/news/miniatures-and-finishers-in-your-account-wardrobe/

For us traders, the gist of this announcement is that miniatures will be treated less as items in the future, but more as skins/dyes. Not only will the miniature collection be moved into the inventory (just like skins and dyes), but minis will also be destroyed when unlocking them. The access to that mini is then account-bound (just like skins and dyes!).

So what are the effects of this?

Because miniatures will be destroyed when unlocking their skin, their supply will be cut down quite a bit with this update. Also, many people are already starting to buy minis right now in order to get one of each kind before the update. This results in mini prices skyrocketing, and that not together with the update, but already now, a week prior to it.

Now here's my advice: Buy minis! All of them! Now!

I don't think the prices will fall down again, at least not before every player out there has read the news and the hype is over. I already bought lots of fine quality minis for 1-2g and relisted them for at least 1g profit, it works! People are not putting buy orders at the moment, they instantly buy one mini of each kind (except for the very expensive ones maybe), and there are many people like this out there! Try to take advantage of this opportunity as long as there are still players unaware of the announcement, who will then (after they read it) go out to buy the minis you relisted for profit before.

However, always be careful. Don't invest too much gold before you are sure this works for you. Also, don't take too high risks. One wrong click, one wrong move and you will regret it. Always go for gold amounts that will not totally ruin you when they're gone.

Some of the prices are already recovering (slowly) so take your chance before it's too late!

Happy flipping!

Getting Loaded from Lodestones

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Written by Draco.

What you need to do this:

  1. Calculator; or use the one on your phone, computer, or grab one from your kids or you own school supplies!
  2. Crystalline Dust (1 per upgrade)
  3. From Mystic Forge Merchant:
  4. Bottles of Elonian Wine (1 per upgrade)
  5. Crystals Crystalline Dust (1 per upgrade bought in lots of 5)

Lodestones fluctuate throughout the week. Usually highest on weekends.
You need to know a few things when upgrading cores to loadstones for profit:

  1. Price of Elonian Wine is 25 silver 4 cooper or 25.04 silver
  2. Cost of 2 cores of the same type.
  3. Cost of Crystalline Dust
  4. Value of upgraded Loadstone.

Add the cost of the Wine, Crystalline Dust and the 2 cores. Divide by .85.
This will give you the breakeven value that you need to sell for if the upgraded Loadstone is higher then.

Ex:
If Crystalline Dust 20 silver
 Molten Core is 10 Silver
 Wine is 25.04 silver
20+(2x10)+25.04 = 65.04 silver
65.04/.85 = 76.52 Silver

If the bid (or buy side) of Molten Lodestones are higher then 76.52, the difference is all profit! If you want a higher profit and have patience, you can slowly sell a few at a time just under the offer (sell price).

Have fun and go make some gold!

Solid Long Term Investment Item

2 comments

This article was written by Finn.

Giant Eyes have been rising since the beginning of this year (see gw2spidy). They started at about 80s buy and 1g sell price in January and have climbed up to 3g 90s buy and 4g 40s sell price already which is an increase of 300-400%!

Now Giant Eyes are a very special item. Not only do they belong to no tier and thus have no cheaper or more expensive crafting material equivalent, they are also hard to get. I have seen several people claim they got a Giant Eye dropped from a mob in Cursed Shore, but all these drops are reported to have happened in September 2012. This does not seem like a lucky coincidence to me and the fact that the Official Guild Wars 2 Wiki page suggests Giant Eyes to be "not dropped by any creature" makes me certain in my assumption that the only way left to obtain them is by opening Heavy Moldy Bags (the drop posssibility was probably removed).

The Heavy Moldy Bag drop rate page in the Wiki has collected data of various players, summing up to 50 Giant Eyes from 68051 Bags and a drop rate of ~0.07% (last page update was July 28). I myself have opened quite a few bags more than that (it was really profitable about a year ago and if the gold is right, I am as busy as a bee!) and it seems that the actual drop rate is 0.1% (my result is ~0.0996% ), meaning 1 Giant Eye in 1000 Heavy Moldy Bags.

Now let's take a look at the use of Giant Eyes. They are components in four different Mystic Forge recipes (all resulting in Exotic weapons), the most "consuming" of them being Immobulus, which requires 250 (!) Giant Eyes.

As can be seen on spidy, the demand for Giant Eyes lies around 2000, which is more than five times the supply of only 380.

All my spiel summed up:

  1. Giant Eyes are constantly rising for 9 months already and there is no reason why they should stop.
  2. Giant Eyes are expensive and very time-consuming to obtain.
  3. Two players buying Giant Eyes for Immobulus would be enough to make the whole Giant Eye market collapse and the price for them to skyrocket.

Of course these fictional two players will not just instantly buy 250 Giant Eyes off the Trading Post.


They are most likely to place buy orders, either for all 250 at once or in smaller steps of 10 or 50 each. Either way they will drive the price up and I am sure the reason why Giant Eyes are rising since January is a constant demand due to the Immobulus recipe.

So, should I be buying Giant Eyes? If yes, how many?

You should be buying Giant Eyes now only if you have gold lying around that you will not need in the next months. The amount you purchase is of course your own decision, but remember never to spend ALL of your gold (especially not all on the same item).

Giant Eyes are definitely a solid long-term investment and a nice method to make decent amounts of gold with close to no expenditure of time.

Just to mention again how awesome this investment is, imagine you would have spent 100g on Giant Eyes in January: Even with instant-buying and instant-selling (which you shouldn't do) you would be able to pick up 231g 5s profit now (based on the prices mentioned at the beginning of this wall of text), probably with less than one minute time spent! :D

Well, guess what I did. ;)

I hope you enjoyed this post, leave a comment below if you a have a question or (constructive!) criticism, until then, have fun trading!

Prepare for the Xunlai Electrum Ingot

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Written by Draco.

What to buy:

  1. Silver ore
  2. Gold ore
  3. Platinum ore
  4. Globs of Ectoplasm
  5. Mithril ore
I firmly believe that when Jewel Crafting 500 is announced, this Ingot will be an intricate part of Jewel crafting to 500. With the necessary ingredients to make it, it only makes sense. There are some speculators, that believe it will be used for either Legendary Back pieces or some other Ascended type items when it is introduced.

The necessary ingredients that are on the Trading Post you can purchase, will most likely be similar to the Ascended Refinement items such as the Spiritwood Plank or the Deldrimor Steel Ingot.
I'm thinking that the breakdown might be somewhere on the lines of:

  • 20 silver ingots     (2 units of ore needed)
  • 20 gold ingots       (2 units of ore needed)
  • 10 platinum ingots   (2 units of ore needed)
  • 1 lump of Mithrillium, which needs 100 Mithril & one Glob of Ectoplasm to make.

Lumps of Mithrillium are time gated, this means that you can only make one Lump of Mithrillium a day. Personally, I have been making one a day for over two months now and stocking up on the above items in anticipation of the Xunlai Electrum Ingot being announced.

I also don’t think they will be account bound. This means that we will be able to sell these!
When the Xunlai Electrum Ingot is announced, and in the game, I'm willing to bet that the Xunlai Electrum Ingot, at first, may sell well over 20 gold apiece the first few days before it backs down to supply/demand levels.

My suggestion to any trader looking for something to stock up on now, should have started to stock up now on these items yesterday! Start making your Lumps of Mithrillium before it's too late and your only able to make one a day.

Time to Buy Leather (FINALLY)

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As many of you already know, a huge content update is coming September 9th, 2014. We've hinted at things to buy in the past, but now we finally have some more concrete ideas on what's changing (particularly with regards to crafting).

It's time to start purchasing crafting mats. ALL OF THEM. You should especially be purchasing leather, which has the greatest room for growth amongst the crafting disciplines.

Each crafting discipline will have the ability to create a back piece that can then be upgraded while leveling the discipline.

While I'm hoping that leather will be a primary component for every back piece (that would greatly help the wounded market of flipping leather), that is not a gaurantee.

The other thing you should be buying across the board are cheap fine quality items for the purpose of salvaging them once prices on materials go up. Think of it as an alternative method for stockpiling.

Your last real chance to stockpile will probably be this weekend, so get on it!

Lastly, sell off or salvage any crafted weapons/armor you have lower than level 80. New items coming with the patch will likely ruin your sales.

[Personal Post] Santa Slay for XBOX 360

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Very, very rarely will I post on this blog about personal matters. If you'd like to skip this one then please go to the most recent Guild Wars 2 post - September 9th Shopping List.

15 years ago I made a game using the QBasic programming language that made me decide programming was my calling in life. At 14 years old I learned on my own without any internet help, which is partly why the game was so special to me; everything was original.

Fast forward to a month ago when I learned (super late to the party on this one) that I can easily create xbox 360 games. There was no doubt in my mind about which game I had to make first.

Santa Slay is available on XBOX 360 for a dollar. If I could I would have put it out there for free (xbox forces you to charge $1, 5$, or $10) because I want as many people as possible to enjoy this little romp. It's especially fun with a friend.

Here's a quick trailer:


If you own an xbox 360 and a dollar, please download the full version of my game and rate it. Until the marketplace has refreshed, you will need to type in the full name "Santa Slay" and press start to find it. Within a day it should also be available under "new releases" for indie games.

Thank you so much!

Markco

September 9th Shopping List

1 comments

Draco has done it again with an impressive write up on what to buy for the September Feature Pack in Guild Wars 2. Be sure to read why you're buying these items before you go out and do so. Also, be aware of their cycles (view gw2spidy) to predict the best times to place your buy orders.

Draco writes:

My Suggestions to stock up on for the September 9th Feature Pack:

  1. Silver ore
  2. Gold Ore
  3. Platinum ore
  4. Iron Ore
  5. Gossamer Scraps
  6. Truffles (both Snow and Orrian)
  7. Butter
  8. Eggs

So we have three weeks to speculate what ANET rolls out in the September Feature Pack. What can we possibly stock up on and why.

I'm thinking if it's going to be anything like the April 2014 Pack, we can possibly look forward to some tweaks in the Rune & Sigil system, Some advancement in obtaining Ascended &/or Legendary Gear, and a lot of changes to the PvP system.

Let's look at the PvP system, I can guarantee that we will be seeing some new fun finishes, some balancing of skill changes, and possibly another PvP Reward Track. Might even see a new PvP Map coming out.

WvW will be getting some attention as well. I'm thinking that we may see a new or expanded map here as well. We do know that there will be a change in the commander tag, allowing different colors. All for more gems of course (added gold sink) ). The tags will also become account bound not just character bound, but the cost is going to rise a lot! Also expect to see a variety of leveling scrolls, maybe even the ability to Mystic Forge them to combine them in some way ex: 3 20 level scrolls = go to 40th level, etc.

Now the important stuff: Potential changes to the way we collect & trade.

There has been a lot of talk with changing the listing fee's, possibly with an option of paying with Karma. Even though there has been a great response on the forums about this, I don't think Karma paying for fee's will happen. I think anything that has to do with paying for the listing fee or tax will cause all items across the board to increase in price to cover the 'value' of Karma.

I think more likely we might see a cap on the amount of items allowed to be listed at one time, maybe increase the amount we can bid or offer per order. An increase from 250 per would be welcomed, maybe allow bulk orders?  Another potential area that can be changed would be the amount of orders you can enter within a specific amount of time. I'm sure we have all hit the order error when we are cleaning out our inventories.

Will we see Jewel Crafting and Cooking to 500?

I'm hoping so, I think adding the ability to craft Ascended or Legendary trinkets would be awesome. I know the whole debate about making ascended trinkets verses buying them with Laurels. I'm just saying, I think making my Ascended trinkets or even Legendary quality trinkets would be fantastic and a strong possibility if Jewel Crafting goes to 500. If this happens, Personally I would stock up on Platinum, Gold, and Silver Ore.  Might want to grab a bunch of Iron as well if the back pieces in the past are any indication of how those might be made. Gossamer might be something  you might want to take a gamble on as well.

Cooking to 500 many say "what the heck are we going to make?" I think the ability to make boost that affect a party, or allies within a specific radius of the boosted player, foods that only work in WvW or PvE. Maybe high end foods or drinks that can only be used in PvP! Maybe for these cooking to 500 will require items like Truffles, rarer herbs, and some staples, like butter, eggs, etc. Cooking to 500 can also be used as a utility crafting profession to be able to make future living story items later.

Gems of Crafting - Simple Guide to Crafting for Profit

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This article was written by Draco, a contributor to this blog and member of the private forums.

Don't just know your Mat's market, know what you can do with your investment if you don't reach your  target price. The best mat's to invest in are those that you can still turn a profit when this happens.

Let's look at Sticks of Butter, Recently it has moved up and I am sure there are people who have an average price that might be at or just above the current offering price. One option is to use your cooking skills and add a few more coins of investment into it and make Bowls of Peach Pie filling or Bowls of Butternut Squash Soup, as well as a few others.

Finding these 'Gems of Crafting' can be very helpful to really understand the market of these items and it's mat's. It will also makes you think of a few other important questions you should ask yourself when thinking of getting involved in some of the mat's markets:

  1. What can this item be turned into?
  2. Are those items, when crafted, profitable?
  3. Should I just craft them and then sell them for profit?
    Will I be able to make more profit crafting then holding and selling?
  4. Will the crafted item's market be able to handle the volume that Ii am about add to it?

This is very important. If you decide that an item might go up and you buy about 10,000 units, when you craft it into a profitable item, how will you be able to sell the crafted item?

You never want to show weakness or create walls when you're just starting to sell a position.

It will also have you start thinking of the reverse:
  1. Why is this item moving up?
  2. Is it the Item that supports the value of the Mat or the Mat that supports the value of the item?
  3. What's going on with the items that's needed to create this?
  4. Is this item suggested to be bought on one of the crafting to 400 sites to level that profession? & how many are suggested to buy?
  5. What else can I make or craft that's suggested on one of the crafting to 400 sites that has profit in there as well?
  6. Can I find other items that are of the same profit zone and take advantage of it?

Understanding these few questions can open new areas of gold production that you might not be tapping into right yet. It can also expand your thinking into other crafting items that have hidden profit as well. One easy way to see if there is craftable profit in an item is going to gw2spidy and look at a craftable item. It will show you what's needed to craft that item and the prices.

Be careful, sometimes these prices are not absolutely current and a loss may occur if you just jump into it. If you take a closer look at the cost of the items needed, you will see that items you need to buy off the TP are listed at the Offer price usually. Take a peek at that item's bid, how much of a spread is in there? Can you buy the items needed at the bid price that puts you into a profit zone?

I have found a few items that said the item, when crafted and sold, would create a loss. But when I took a deeper look, I found that one of the items needed to craft the end result, if bought on the bid, turned  the crafting loss into a gain, sometimes upwards of a silver profit per! These are great because when people are looking for easy profit items, they will pass these right up because they don't take the time and do a little research.

Making gold is easy when someone tells you what to buy and sometimes when to sell. It's harder to find these ideas at times for some people because a little extra homework and research is needed to locate them. When you do find these though, you will find that the competition will be much smaller than the ideas that you find out second or third hand. Who knows how many others are doing the same thing as you when you find out that way!

These Gems of Crafting have been a great cash cow for me the past few months and made some great amounts of gold. It's now time for you to find these too and make some great profits as well. A little time doing the research can net you wonderful profits.

~Draco

Be sure to leave comments if you have questions and especially if you liked this article.

Two Poor Assumptions

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I have two questions from novice players that are based on two mistakes the players are making. Let's answer their questions and set them on the path to becoming trading post super stars...

Fabio asks:

"hi marko, sorry for my bad english in advance. i'll try to explain myself as easy as i can since talking about trading post can be tricky for a newbie of trades like me.
i wanted to start with flipping, let's say, copper ores wich are the easiest to start i think. i've started just buy them at 42 copper each (current price at tp while im writing) and im trying to resell them at 51 copper each to have a comeback since at 50 copper i would just repay my copper buy transaction (counting fees). is this a good and proper way to start? should i prefer other crafting material at the moment? thanks for your precious help! :)"

His assumption is that copper ore is something you can easily flip instantly as soon as you by it. This is not the case Fabio! While in your current scenario copper ore looks like a good flip, what matters more is the time of day/week, not the price. You see, copper ore tends to go up and down in relation to the items that salvage into it along with player selling times (people tend to dump onto the marketplace at weekend nights after farming/playing on their characters. Copper is an item you can flip if you buy it during the work week and sell at specific times on the weekend. In other words, it isn't the fast flip for 1 copper instantly you had always hoped for.

Perhaps in your scenario you caught copper at the right moment when it was on the rise. Great, but not so great, because now you're going to think that the buy and sell prices at this moment are what make an item flippable. This isn't the case! You could be catching copper when it is falling, in which case you will not sell your items until the price has finished going down then back up... could be days or even a week!

Now, in order to help you learn the copper market, I want you to investigate buying level 0-4 and 6-9 white armor with buy orders and salvaging it for copper. You will notice that many can be purchased for incredible deals! More importantly, you will see that these items go up and down with the price of copper. After you master these, you should look into bags that turn into copper ore. And finally, you should study the way copper changes throughout the week. Use gw2spidy as a start, then watch it periodically on your own.

Daniel writes:

"Hi Markco,

Thanks so much for providing these tips and TP advice for me. I consider myself kind of a noob when it comes to making money on the TP; I usually just sell mats whenever they clutter up my bank.
I'm guessing I should start with buying lots of low value items and flipping them? I do have around 100g, but I'm relatively inexperienced.

I look forward to everything you send out in the future!"
Low value items don't always guarantee fast sales, as I just showed with copper in the previous example. To get started, I want you to flip low level weapons and armor, ranging from whites to blues. Also try level 35 greens. Once you get the hang of managing an inventory of weapons/armor and how much to buy/sell at a time (you will eventually get sick of making money this way), I want you to move on to tier 1 - 5 crafting materials. Watch some of these items as they really fluctuate from day to day (research on gw2spidy).

Also, amount of gold is great for stockpiling items to sell at a later date, but not for day trading. You're better off spending small amounts of money very carefully rather than day trading in bulk. If you make a mistake you could be set back quite a bit. But stockpiling items you know fluctuate constantly and reselling when the time(s) are right is very low risk. Trick is picking the right items, which is why I'm pointing you at tier 1-5 crafting materials. These have many different ways you can resell them after purchasing, including crafting and mystic forging. The more options the better!

Just think before you buy, and remember that re-listing items costs you part of the fee for posting.

Do Undercuts Mean I Should Cancel an Auction?

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"Hi Marcko,

I was wondering why in your Damn Gold Guide you stated 'I do not, repeat do not, cancel my listed auctions.' After 24/48 hours most of my flips sell, however there are stubborn ones, that continuously get undercut that don't sell. What is the maximum time I should wait before re posting them at market price?

~John"

Hey John, thanks for the great question. Since it's one that I receive quite often, I'll answer publicly on the blog.

Yes, there is a point when you should probably cancel an auction, but it's not always as obvious as you'd think. If you are short on gold for some reason and can't afford something without canceling auctions, then I'd cancel for sure instead of pushing off an important purchase. Another case when you should cancel auctions is if you posted for way too much by mistake (clerical or situational). However, an assumption most people make when deciding to cancel auctions is that undercuts are a sign that they overpriced the auction; they're a bad omen of sorts.

If you follow this logical reasoning to its conclusion, nothing you post will ever sell because someone will always undercut it and eventually the price of all items will be nothing.

While thinking things through proves that the idea your auctions will be "continuously undercut and not sell" is very unlikely, there still is a point where the statement is true.

You must, for example, post your auctions at a price that will sell in a realistic amount of time, regardless of undercuts. If green wood logs never went above 10 silver in the past six months, then I'm unlikely to sell at that price point even if there are a few thousand higher than that. By looking at an item's recent history of prices you can quickly figure out whether the price is moving in a certain direction, fluctuating, etc.

Let's do an example to clarify what I'm talking about.

Green Wood Logs are at around 65 copper buy out.
The past few weeks they have been rising.
The lowest price in the past week has been 50 copper buy out.

If I post at 65 copper buy out, I will likely see a large amount of undercuts. However, if the pattern of prices continues, then I will eventually sell.

I could also post at 60 copper and sell quickly, but I'd make less profit.

Last tip... waiting 24-48 hours for an item to sell if not a big deal, depending on an item. I want my rare dyes to sell in a week and my grapes to sell in a weekend. I wouldn't apply a standard of time against all the same items you're selling.

Salvaging Lump of Ambrite Still Profitable

3 comments

I'm selling my Ambrite pieces for almost 3 silver each and buying lumps of Ambrite for 3.75 silver. Even if your luck sucks and you get around 1.5 Pieces of Ambrite per Lump of Ambrite, you still get back around 3.87 silver. Minus the three copper for my fancy smancy Copper Fed Salv-o-matic and I'm salvaging about a hundred a day for profit. Prices fluctuate so the key is to pay attention to the market and wait for changes before placing buy orders or listing to sell.

I'm just surprised that this method still works, as I already mentioned it a few weeks ago. Oh well, easy money! Just remember that with low profit / low risk items like this you usually have to wait a little bit longer than normal for the buy and sell orders to complete.

On the private forum side of things... Alex sent me an epic upgrade to the original converting kharma to gold method and I included it in the Markco's Crazy Thoughts Section. It shaves off around 100 kharma per item from the crab vendor I first recommended. You can find the original strategy on the blog here: Turn Your Kharma into Gold.

A Better Way to Use Piles of Crystalline Dust

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Guild Wars 2 Email... Keep it coming!
I may be posting irregularly at the moment but life will eventually get back to normal. In the mean time, your emails greatly increase the amount of content I can put out on the blog. Obviously not every email is worth mentioning, but the more you send the more I can help people with similar questions. Here's some emails I went through last night:

Rob wrote:

"Hey thanks for the emails.

I have been doing some research over the last couple of days. I'm sold on the [Removed: method for turning skill points to gold in our secret forum] etc are all gravy it looks like. I'm going to watch the ecto market once a week by week basis looking for patterns, once i can see a steady patten ill decide how much the extra magic find is worth."
 
(Rob's talking about salvaging with that bit about ectos... now for his questions...)

"Do you have any ideas about the best/most profitable ways to use crystalized dust? I can see a pretty easy 10% out of making master oils other than that i guess trying to find the best times to do T6 rare mats looks like the best 2nd choice.
 
Thanks for all your help."
 
You're right about the master oils, and that has always been a good way to convert piles of crystaline dust. One strategy that ties together what you're doing nicely is to salvage ectos at a loss (for the magic find) and instead of selling the piles of crystalline dust outright, convert them into master oils. This will reduce your losses or even possibly make you a profit.

You can create some real profit by bidding on rares to salvage (or watching the trading post and sniping deals) for ectos to begin the process of salvaging for piles of crystalline dust and converting to master oils.

Always try to re-evaluate how you obtain items and put them to use for making a profit. Keep in mind various in game systems, especially disciplines, for reducing costs or increasing sale prices.

Oooo Piece of Candy and 7 Other Things to Buy Right Now

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Things to invest in as we move into the second half of summer:

1. Candy Corn

I'm predicting that Candy Corn is going to rise within a month just like it did last year. This is due to the Halloween event coming up in three months. The only difference between this year and last year is that Candy Corn has been increasing a little bit each month since the last Halloween event, making this prediction a little less than a sure thing. Invest at your own risk!

2. Unidentified Dyes

These will continue to slowly climb in price, so investing in them is a sure, albeit slow, strategy for making gold. Expect bigger upticks during the Christmas event and other times of the year when players tend to come back after a hiatus.

3. Iron Ore

In the past three months Iron Ore has gone up to 2 silver and back down to 1 silver like clockwork. Right now we're sitting at around 1.25 silver, so I recommend buying this up for a quick profit next month.

4. Thick Leather Section

Back in May of this year Thick Leather Sections rose to 25 copper, and I'm sure that we will see spikes like that again in the future. You just need to be patient and wait it out.

5. Grape

Grape speculation is a scary thing, because there aren't that many in circulation on the trading post compared to other cooking materials. One time a reddit post was created based on a post I wrote about grape speculation and the price rose to over two gold per grape! This was due to a patch that was supposedly adding new wines, and everyone assumed grapes would be used in the process. Anytime you see grapes as cheap as they are now, you should stockpile a few.

6. Butter

Christmas time is coming faster than you think.

7. Egg

Despite the fact that eggs have remained steady in price for a long time, I have noticed a steady decline in the number of eggs for sale. This should lead to a spike in price in the next few months.

8. Lump of Raw Ambrite

These are currently profitable if you are patient with buy orders and sell listings. You'll average 2 Pieces of Ambrite per Raw Ambrite you salvage. At that rate you'll be making around 10 copper per salvage.

Dry Top Farming Spot

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As people move on to the next zone in the Gates of Maguuma, they may be passing over a great farming spot for powerful and potent venom sacs. Check out this video for where I am farming in Dry Top, Prosperity Valley.

Show Me That Heavy Booty

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Heavy Bags of Booty drop tier 6 items and are a wonderful way to make gold.... as long as you do the math right. Let's begin with a simple question:

"Hello Markco


I've been away from the game for sometime and can't get back into the groove of making gold, if you've got the time I wanted to run an idea past you if you have the time of course.
Are heavy bags of booty profitable? They seem to have a decent drop rate of t6 mats and offer lodestones and cores, on paper really don't see a downside to investing in a few stacks.
I know you've covered bags a few times but i can't see any mention on the web of heavy booty bags drop rates so wanted to see if you had any views on it first.
KR"

So KR wants to make gold opening heavy bags of booty. To start him off, I'd recommend reading this wiki page on them: http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Heavy_Bag_of_Booty

Next, we need to consider how we'll make any gold off these bags. Buying them with buy orders will cost around 6 silver 50 copper at best. If we look at the most common drops for bags (common items) it's pretty obvious that in every one of those instances you'd lose money. Whenever common items drop you are just hoping to lose as little as possible, because the real money here is in the fine crafting materials (all worth around 35 silver) and Rare crafting materials like lodestones (30 silver to 3 gold). Any medallions or sapphires are pretty much going to be losses in addition to the common drops.

Since you can't count on lodestones dropping at a consistent rate (it's like 1% at best), you need to focus in on the fine quality crafting materials like ancient bones and powerful venom sacs. Any time those drop you will average 2 of them, so that's 60 silver or just under 6 bags.

You will lose, on average, around 4 silver per bag that fails. So that actually gives you a little better odds... instead of 6 bags to get 60 silver it's really 15! Now we're getting into profitable territory.

If you do play to win with Heavy Bags of Booty, be sure to know what the real winners are: fine quality crafting materials worth 30ish silver a pop.

Unfortunately, you can get fine quality items that aren't tier 6 crafting materials. When this happens (approximately 40% of the time), you take a hit to your profits and that's why I can't recommend this method as a great way to make gold. However, if you pay attention to the price of bags and get them even cheaper than 6 silver, you will vastly improve your odds. What's more, I've found it can be tedious trying to sell these above the buy order listing with lots of competition.

Making gold off these bags is actually easier when you speculate. The price rose for Heavy Bags of Booty by 200% when the latest patch hit. Since this bag drops the best crafting materials it will always rise when those materials become in demand. Next time there's a major living story update or anything like that, be sure to stockpile a few bags in advance.

10 Things I Learned Flipping Level 20 Fine Trinkets

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One of my favorite markets is level 20 fine trinkets. These can teach you quite a bit about "bidding low and selling normal." I like that phrase and this market because there are 10 great lessons bundled in them:

1. Buy Orders should be used whenever possible in 99% of situations. When you're flipping an item that is moving upwards in value then sometimes buying outright is preferred.
2. The "normal" price of something is whatever it will sell for in an efficient time frame.
3. Cost, profit, and time are all factors you need to think about when picking markets.
4. To understand the phrase "normal" better, you need to do research.
5. Experience watching the market doesn't hurt either.
6. When one market works bidding low and selling normal, there is usually quite a few related markets just waiting for you to discover them.
7. Level 20 trinkets sell so well because that is a point in the game when people tend to upgrade (also there is an item that immediately starts you off at level 20). What other items could people want at different points of leveling? Hmm.... Might be a good idea to think about this since so many people are going to ruin this market after this post. For a while anyway.
8. Fine isn't the highest quality item available at this level, but it sells the best. Makes you think doesn't it?
9. Level 20 isn't exactly the best level in the game, yet it sells quite well. Also makes you think doesn't it?
10. The Garnet Copper Amulet sells the best of all of these and for the highest price. Could it be people enjoy doing straight up more damage at low levels like most RPG's?

The Gates of Maguuma are Hard to Say

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There are four items you should be investing in right now and watching like a hawk:

  1. Orichalcum Ore
  2. Glob of Ectoplasm
  3. Quartz Crystal
  4. Piece of Ambrite

They are used to create Exquisite Ambrite Jewel which is a crafting material in Ambrite Amulets and Earrings. Expect the price of all four items to increase steadily over the next few weeks. Ambrite itself jumped incredible amounts in a very short time period.

So far I'm enjoying the living story very much, but the trading post is far more exciting!

Are you watching markets and investing in any items at the moment? I'm particularly interested in how long it will take Quartz Crystals to bounce back since so many people stockpiled them during the last event. They jumped initially at the start of the event on July 1st, but now they seem to have settled at the 28 copper mark. I predict that they will rise once more by next weekend, but whether it's enough to make a big splash is hard to determine. The Ambrite itself and Orichalcum Ore are probably the best investments and the ectoplasm will likely continue to grow in value (it was already rising prior to the event).

Be on the lookout for related items rising in price behind all of these (like crystalline dust).

FYI: I've noticed in the past that these living story events tend to flood the tier 5 and 6 markets with easy to acquire items (especially from salvaging). Be on the lookout for price decreases that create great buying opportunities.

Oh and watch for Nopale to rise... it's the new thing you get from cacti farming.

Creating "Invisible" Walls

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"Dear Markco,

First of all I just want to say that your guides are awesome. They helped me a lot in on my way to digital currency success. I do have a question however. There are many times when I buy a relatively large amount of items and at once and want to list them for sale and I am constantly debating whether to list them all for the same price or spread the across multiple areas (generally within a cooper of each other). I was hoping you might have some input about my problem.

Thank you very much, Ilay."
 
You can do this, but keep in mind that anything left unsold costs you 5% to cancel.
This strategy is best used in markets that don't fluctuate much so you're trying to create the appearance of a deal. In those cases I tend to create a large gap between the two prices well beyond a copper each.

Otherwise you create the appearance of heavy competition/undercutting, which doesn't usually help your cause. If anything it will just insentivise people to undercut you further.
In the end such actions often have no effect on the process, since millions of people are buying the common sellers every day.
I know someone who used this strategy when silver was spiking in price in order to effect the market, but we're talking about 20%-30% of the total number of silver ores on the marketplace. For your average deals, there is no reason to spread out your prices. Just be sure to allow enough time for the market to buy up your items, and know that posting too many items is far worse than too few in terms of psyching out other sellers.

Dumping items tends to create large walls and bring attention to your market (more undercutting). Selling in groups creates an "invisible" wall that appears to be just a bunch of random players posting. That's the only time you want to stagger your listings. Just like my friend did with silver.

Where Should I Invest 500 Gold?

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"Hi Markco!

I've just gotten back to playing guildwars 2 recently and I've made about 500 gold in a little over two weeks, mostly by converting skillpoints to gold using the mystic forge. I was wondering if you could give me pointers on where to invest it? Also, do you think it is too late to stockpile on ores?
 
Carlo
Hey Carlo, great question. I would recommend investing in ores still, but also in unidentified dyes. They are going to keep rising throughout the year and beyond.

For anyone wondering how Carlo is turning skill points into gold I highly recommend the information on our private forums.

How to Find Profitable Items to Craft and Sell

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"Hey Markco,

Thanks for this info! I do seem to be having some trouble finding the profitable items to craft and sell. I use gw2spidy to sort to a rating level where I have a bunch of material stocked up (ie tier 2 wood/metal), and then sort based on demand to see where there's a good amount of interest in the items, and then look into profit to see where I can make some money. 

But often times these items which on black and white look would sell well (due to high demand and even/low supply), simply aren't picked up! What's going on and am I doing something wrong?

Cheers and thanks again for your help :)
`Bogdan"
I did a post on this in the recent past, so I definitely want you to check that out first: How to Get Rich In Guild Wars 2. That article outlines how to use another website to find the best crafting deals. However, it is useless if you don't apply common sense to the acquisition and selling of items.

A follow up post I wrote afterwards discussed Becoming Like Walmart. The idea here is that you take advantage of changes in the trading post based on what you know sells from experience. If an item you can craft, but more importantly sell, has materials going on sale, then you need to immediately buy as much as possible. While you might not be able to sell the crafted items all at once right away, you can slowly sell off an inventory of items over the course of several days or even weeks. It's far better to be in the position of having valuable items ready to sell than hoping to acquire them.

Be aware of the flow of item prices (you know gw2spidy, so that's a great start when looking at crafting materials) and you'll easily pick off great deals. You were just missing the other half which is having a tool for finding the deals (see previous link).

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"Hey Markco!

Thank you for all the tips you're providing!

What I was wondering, how much gold do you make per hour if you're flipping e.g.? I dont flip a lot, because it makes the appearance to me that the profit in terms of gold/time invested are not really worth it. I might be mistaken, but especially flipping low-profit items seem to be a solid way to make gold, but not much gold.

Since there are other means of earning gold, what would you say would be the gold/time invested ratio of flipping e.g.? Investing is another thing, since you don't need to place endless of buy/sell orders per day to make some profit.
I know the question can't be answered easily, since it depends on the niches or markets you flip and the margins etc.

Max"

Why don't you attempt to invest in long term items based on patches and analysis of crafting materials? Doing things like monitoring tier 1 and 6 items can do wonders for your portfolio. Buy low, sell high, but first learn what the definitions of high and low are!

People who make tons of gold on the trading post don't measure it in terms of gold per hour because they are planners and enjoy the big pay offs more than the little ones every hour. Flipping is best done long term, as in at least a week, and it requires a mastery of markets to truly understand.

The reason I recommend time consuming but profitable markets is because the lower the risk, the better the chance you'll succeed and learn something.

Start looking at prices and jotting them down, or spend a few hours looking at gw2spidy and playing with the charts.

I have several blog posts on this kind of thing:

http://www.guildwars2tradingpost.com/2014/06/using-spidy-to-salvage-weekly.html#.U6c0MrRAaSo
http://www.guildwars2tradingpost.com/2013/10/guild-wars-2-spidy-chart-analysis.html#.U6c0JrRAaSo
http://www.guildwars2tradingpost.com/2013/05/how-to-read-gw2spidy-charts-correctly.html#.U6c0U7RAaSo

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