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T5 Items Spiking While T1 Hemorrhaging

Have you noticed the increase in tier 5 material prices this past week? Let's take a crack at why this is happening, using numbers to support our speculations.

First off, I want to pitch the theory that the recent price changes are due to old players coming back to the game. More specifically, college aged boys and girls looking to get into Guild Wars 2. It's the perfect time for when they first get back from winter holidays... finally away from the pesky families and other equally annoying distractions. Now they can sit and play in solitude, drinking red bulls with mountain dew and eating whole boxes of Ramen noodles.

These players are likely to be old players coming back to the game, who generally want to craft the newer items (tier 4/5 stuff required!). They also farm the tier 4/5 items more frequently so those go up in price. Keep in mind that increases to tier 4 prices also increase tier 5 due to the mystic forge.

Another piece of evidence towards my theory is the massive drop in tier 1 items. They are seriously hitting the bottom of the barrel! I'm not quite sure when I'll buy these items like crazy, but it has to be soon. Copper Ore, for example, is under 25 copper! Just a week ago it was over 40 copper and there's no end in sight for how low Copper Ore could get. Why would tier 1 decrease in value? Well, according to GW2Spidy, the buy orders have not increased but the sell orders have doubled over the past month. That means no difference in demand but twice the supply. Any entry level economist knows that such an equation spells disaster for the market in question.

Players coming back to the game and starting alts could be the explanation for this drop in item price. If I'm correct (let's face it I normally am, even if it's for the wrong reasons) then you will want to buy up these tier 1 items in the next week or so before all these new alts move on to the next tier of levels (or players get bored with their new toys).

Let's look at one more piece of evidence: low level armor and weapons. Numerous pieces of low level gear have gone up in price over the course of the past month. This is new characters but not new players, since they have the gold to outfit their characters with the best gear at the earliest levels.

What should you do in the near future? Buy tier 1 items once they hit rock bottom. Buy Tier 4/5 items now and wait to sell them off once they are profitable.

Also, get into our secret forum area. I just discovered two ways to PRINT MONEY using the recent changes to item prices. No, it doesn't involve the mystic forge. Look at this forum post to learn more.

1 comments:

  1. João Carlos said...:

    Let me make a simple question: how the chinese launch (that will happen sooner or later this year) will affect the market. I assume that while the chinese servers will be separated, the AH will continue to be shared, if that don't happens the chinese servers will not affect the economy.

    IMHO, if the AH is shared, we will see a huge influx of new players and low level toons. I guess that tier 1 mats will drop to bottom (well, one million chinese players...) but maybe crafted tiers 1 and 2 will have higher prices.

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