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Why Did Arena Net Change Mithril Ore Drops?

Hey all, been trying my best to get to your emails, so I apologize for anyone who's been waiting this past week. I had minor foot surgery among a host of other issues which prevented me from playing guild wars 2. I'm back though with some advice on the recently hot items to discuss which have cooled and which are just going to get hotter in the coming weeks. I've also included a special section at the end of the post on the mysterious change to Mithril Ore over the past few months.

You probably already know this, but it's almost summer time. When that magical time begins all those members of our society still in school will come back to guild wars 2 with a vengeance. This is the best time to sell common items that everyone uses on a day to day basis. Items that were cold in terms of price spikes will sudden get white hot. What should you invest in for this pivotal time? I would highly recommend all the items that have taken a hit from the ascended armor patch - Orichalcum Ore, Gossamer Scraps, etc.

Hardened Leather Sections - Stop buying these. I know I said they would go back up, but at this point, it will take a change from Arena Net for that to happen. I highly recommend buying one stack for long term speculation, but no more. If you have a stockpile waiting because of my advice, please just hold on to it. Better to wait and make a profit than lose half your investment selling now. I apologize for those who speculated on this, but it's a good lesson on why you should diversify amongst many items as well as not invest too much gold into any one gamble.

Agony Infusion - Do not, repeat DO NOT invest in any of these except for +1 Agony Infusion for long term profits. Flip each type at a time, all the way up to as much as you can afford without breaking the bank. I sell a handful of the more expensive ones each day for moderate profits, but I'm not sure if the risk is worth it anymore. Expect any changes to the game which increase the number of Agony slots (such as new amulets or rings) to generally help the price of these along, but otherwise the trend will continue to drift south.

Silk Scraps - They will see a slight price decrease over the coming weeks, but when summer hits I predict that they will shoot back up again temporarily. Instead of investing directly in silk scraps, I would recommend buying discarded garments and heavy bags, which can be salvaged into the silk scraps or sold outright for profit. As I said weeks ago, these have tremendously increased in price alongside silk scraps.

Linen Scraps - A great buy for long term profits, buy orders have doubled sell listings for quite some time. Expect these to rise when silk goes up in the summer.

Gold - Invest now, but remember that there's a lot of risk due to gold's crazy 30%+ selling fee.

Globs of Ectoplasm - They've stabilized around 35 silver, but I've been saying for a while that ascended gear will gradually increase their value over time.

Pristine Toxic Spore Sample - Hot topic for a while now, these have seen spikes as high as 300% increases in value. Pristine Toxic Spore Samples will be a trading staple for quite some time. You can even just buy and flip at the current price for small profits.

Giver's Weaponry - Search for the word "Giver" and provide a level requirement plus quality restriction. Such as Giver + Fine + level 10-15. These are fantastic items to flip, just don't attempt to flood the market or you'll end up sitting on items for a while. I believe the low level stuff does so well because players can use them in WvWvW and they scale fantastically.

Proof Arena Net Played with Mithril Ore
As you can see in the chart above, as of 30 days ago Mithril Ore was at 4 Million sell listings. At present day, it's below 750,000. What happened in half a month?! Also, what was going on in September that caused the Mithril Ore listings to jump? Bots?

Mithril Ore - Thanks to ascended armor, these have slowly risen for several months. I know it doesn't appear like a large profit margin, but the price literally doubled in just over a month. I called it on this blog quite some time ago, mainly because I noticed a massive drop in sell listings while buy orders remained constant. You know what that tells me? A stealth nerf by Arena Net to the drop rates (including loot bags that can give Mithril Ore) or possibly bot bans. It definitely didn't happen due to a change to Platinum Ore, as it's still not profitable to combine that in the mystic forge for Mithril Ore. Overall, an unchanged rate of demand doesn't explain a decrease in supply. Either way, something behind the scenes caused this to happen. I'm looking at you Arena Net, though I don't consider it a bad thing!

I understand that another explanation is that people simply bought 3 million Mithril Ore outright in thirty days, without placing buy orders. Just doesn't seem believable to me! Have to look at all possibilities though, and either way, the price will rise if people are buying Mithril Ore in droves.

Silver Ore - Lots of ways to play this market, so I would recommend investing in Silver Ore as well as Mithril Ore.

5 comments:

  1. Anonymous said...:

    How many mithril was needed for this: http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/1u1a7k/data_10000g_rare_gs_results/

  1. Marvin Varela said...:

    Is Jute in the same road? http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/19718

  1. Anonymous said...:

    The above poster has a good point and also this one. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SHdeAaYz8gM
    This is extreme crafting. I just dont have the time to spend on multiple accounts and then spend the time to generate money.

    This kind of activity probably screws up the economy or people like me who just dont have the time to sink into it.

  1. Anonymous said...:

    This could be a reason in mithril drop: http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/1umdyo/how_i_make_200_600_gold_a_day/

  1. Anonymous said...:

    http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/1umdyo/how_i_make_200_600_gold_a_day/

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