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Unidentified Dye Prices Exploding

"Hi Markco,

I've been reading your blog for a while. I stumbled upon it somtime after I had taken my first steps with TP. I started with about 20g I think and I was flipping platinum ore and linen scraps at the time. I think it was about a year ago. I have learned many things from your blog and often I've read things that I figured out myself before, ensuring me that I pretty much caught the hang of it. I think I made the most money on flipping agony infusions in the early days, selling bolts of damasks.

Thank you for showing me GW2Spidy, I've been using it ever since you recommended it on your blog.

Right now I'm watching uinidentified dye exploding, just as you predicted. I just wish I bought more. I was away everytime when they were 17 ish silver :(

Another thing that I thought about, and please don't take it the wrong way ;)

I was thinking somewhere along these lines: You have quite a bit of readers and you are a huge authority for them. You probably have a significant impact on the economy. Do you observe huge difference after you post a tip?
Let give an example. You have a hunch, that the jewelcrafting patch is coming soon. You buy a lot of cheap materials - copper, silver, gold etc. Then you post a tip on your blog causing a huge demand wave. That wave causes other players to think that something's going on and buying too leading to price explosion. This is where you (and forum members) can sell some of your mats for a nice profit.
I'm not meaning it offensive or that you're doing it. It's just something I thought about, that people with huge influence on stock exchange probably do in real world?

Cheers and thanks for all of the tips :)
Syzmon"
Hey there Syzmon. Thanks for the great email. Regarding unidentified dyes, they are blowing up and they will continue to blow up. I don't recommend buying them outright because anyone who has waited this long is going to panic in a week when they haven't gone up more than a few silver. Unidentified dyes have always been for investors with strong stomachs, which I think you have. But for everyone else, only buy unidentified dyes if you're willing to wait four months for them to get back to their original price of 35 silver. I have thousands of unidentified dyes, and I bought some more when they were at 17-19 silver. They are like a currency to me, almost like my swiss bank account. At any moment, I usually just keep around 50-100 gold on my character, and I withdraw unidentified dyes to get more funds when needed. I am glad that GW2 had the insight to not allow this precious item to tank forever in value. It was a hunch but they got it right with not allowing monsters to drop them anymore. Eventually the price will even out, but the new influx of players will ensure a nice increase in unidentified dye prices for months to come.

Named dyes are doing quite well for flippers as well. Rare quality dyes can get you 5+ silver per flip! With the panic over unidentified dyes, I wonder if rare dye flipping has been overlooked by the masses.

On to your second point. Of course I can manipulate the markets for evil, but it's not as simple as you make it sound. Only in rare cases could I actually make a dent with the few thousand followers of this blog. I can think of a handful of times where we definitely changed the economy, but it is an extremely rare event. Like grapes, which only had a few thousand items available. When I mentioned they would go up in value temporarily they skyrocketed to like 10 gold per stack of 250. I realized this was an anomaly due to the scarcity of the item, so I did make some nice gold selling on the speculation. However, I told everyone what was going on and recommended the selling of grapes at the same time I sold them.

The grape sensation was created by a reddit post, so I didn't create the hysteria but I helped people on this blog take advantage of it.

For items like copper, platinum, mithril, etc, I do not have the numbers of followers necessary to affect their prices. Even if I had 100,000 investors following my advice, we wouldn't make a dent in such common materials used by the millions of players.

When you see me post about an item in the game, it's to help everyone make a profit, not just myself. I tell you my moves and I make them as I tell them. Sometimes this backfires and gets all my buy orders undercut but I could care less. I don't need gold in this game and I'm in the business of getting you more gold. It would be counter intuitive to selfishly mislead members of the blog for more gold.

In terms of efficiency, I am better off purchasing gems for gold with the money from the forum on this site, then I am attempting to mislead the members into inflating my investments. I hope that this logic helps to alleviate your concerns. Thanks for the email!

3 comments:

  1. Filou said...:

    Very interesting article, as always :)

    However, I'm a bit confused about one thing, and I can't decide myself which way is better... Let me explain:
    In the previous post, you said that "How long you wait for a buy order and sell listing to complete is technically lost gold since you could have put that gold to use elsewhere."
    I completely agree with that, however there seems to be some exception to that way of thinking. Dye is a good example obviously. Indeed, you said yourself that you invested a lot of money into it (so did I, btw).

    My question here is: why? What are your criterias for investing long term or short term? In other words, at what point do you say "ok, here it is better to invest 50G for long term instead of flipping things for 50G".

    Or maybe i'm totally wrong and you do both. You tell me :)

  1. Anonymous said...:

    Filou,
    The long term investments are something you do behind the short term ones. If you can afford to use 500g towards investment, but don't have (or don't want to take) the time to place enough buy orders and then the subsequent sell orders every X days. So say you can only manage to make use of 300g a day with the next day you making the 300g back + profits. But you had 500g you wanted to invest, use the other 200g on something that will take awhile to become profitable, as your time is limited.

  1. Anonymous said...:

    I have a tendency to invest in both. I, myself like holding about 25-50g on my account while investing in my long term items that I will be able to flip in the future. I also invest into many things for the future. For instance, while most think mithril ore is a commodity that is of little value. However, I see it as an investment even at .28-.35 copper right now. When or if mithril ore goes up (which it will in due time) in price, I know there are a ton of items that will sell higher (heavy armor components, weaponsmithing components, huntsman components, siege recipe's and so forth). Having 1-5k of those items on hand will give you a leg up if mithril ore goes up in value. Also since we haven't heard if or when the artificing ascended patch comes, I believe it is still a good time to invest while the price is low. In my investment of Mithril Ore I am sitting on maybe 4-5 million ores if we were to break down everything I have made. Now that is just Mithril Ore, there are other things out there that a good to have a stock of commodities.

    When I stopped playing last May the first thing I did was invest all my gold into Unid Dyes (yes that was my long term plan back then before Marko said what he invested his extra gold into). I was only able to get 3-4 stacks of Unid Dyes and some Weapons that I thought would go up in value. When I came back to the game after 4 months of not playing. I had 2G to my name, but Unid Dyes jumped in value. I cashed out 2 stacks and began my return to the TP. I do have to say, since returning I still don't keep anything over 25-50 gold on my account. While Im just a small fish in a BIG pond, watching this site gave me some insights to different areas of flipping.

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