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Solid Long Term Investment Item

This article was written by Finn.

Giant Eyes have been rising since the beginning of this year (see gw2spidy). They started at about 80s buy and 1g sell price in January and have climbed up to 3g 90s buy and 4g 40s sell price already which is an increase of 300-400%!

Now Giant Eyes are a very special item. Not only do they belong to no tier and thus have no cheaper or more expensive crafting material equivalent, they are also hard to get. I have seen several people claim they got a Giant Eye dropped from a mob in Cursed Shore, but all these drops are reported to have happened in September 2012. This does not seem like a lucky coincidence to me and the fact that the Official Guild Wars 2 Wiki page suggests Giant Eyes to be "not dropped by any creature" makes me certain in my assumption that the only way left to obtain them is by opening Heavy Moldy Bags (the drop posssibility was probably removed).

The Heavy Moldy Bag drop rate page in the Wiki has collected data of various players, summing up to 50 Giant Eyes from 68051 Bags and a drop rate of ~0.07% (last page update was July 28). I myself have opened quite a few bags more than that (it was really profitable about a year ago and if the gold is right, I am as busy as a bee!) and it seems that the actual drop rate is 0.1% (my result is ~0.0996% ), meaning 1 Giant Eye in 1000 Heavy Moldy Bags.

Now let's take a look at the use of Giant Eyes. They are components in four different Mystic Forge recipes (all resulting in Exotic weapons), the most "consuming" of them being Immobulus, which requires 250 (!) Giant Eyes.

As can be seen on spidy, the demand for Giant Eyes lies around 2000, which is more than five times the supply of only 380.

All my spiel summed up:

  1. Giant Eyes are constantly rising for 9 months already and there is no reason why they should stop.
  2. Giant Eyes are expensive and very time-consuming to obtain.
  3. Two players buying Giant Eyes for Immobulus would be enough to make the whole Giant Eye market collapse and the price for them to skyrocket.

Of course these fictional two players will not just instantly buy 250 Giant Eyes off the Trading Post.


They are most likely to place buy orders, either for all 250 at once or in smaller steps of 10 or 50 each. Either way they will drive the price up and I am sure the reason why Giant Eyes are rising since January is a constant demand due to the Immobulus recipe.

So, should I be buying Giant Eyes? If yes, how many?

You should be buying Giant Eyes now only if you have gold lying around that you will not need in the next months. The amount you purchase is of course your own decision, but remember never to spend ALL of your gold (especially not all on the same item).

Giant Eyes are definitely a solid long-term investment and a nice method to make decent amounts of gold with close to no expenditure of time.

Just to mention again how awesome this investment is, imagine you would have spent 100g on Giant Eyes in January: Even with instant-buying and instant-selling (which you shouldn't do) you would be able to pick up 231g 5s profit now (based on the prices mentioned at the beginning of this wall of text), probably with less than one minute time spent! :D

Well, guess what I did. ;)

I hope you enjoyed this post, leave a comment below if you a have a question or (constructive!) criticism, until then, have fun trading!

2 comments:

  1. Who would pay 2k gold (i.e. giant eyes around 7 gold) to make a scepter which is not even legendary.
    Okay, the skin is definitively cool (my favorite <3). Immobulus was my way to make money 1 year ago (made it for 200 gold, sold it for 400+ gold several times).
    However, I do not see it going steadily above 6 gold due to the cost of the final item (2k gold) which would be too high for the exotic statistics.

    Moreover, it is likely that they will release new skins/weapons in a near future, increasing concurrence for Immobulus.

  1. Anonymous said...:

    Hi Fabien,
    Four Immobuli (?) were sold for 1650g or more only in the last two weeks (spidy!).
    Let's say the 250 Crystalline Dust and 30 Mystic Coins add up to 50g. That means the people who payed 1650g for Immobulus basically spent 1600g on 250 Giant Eyes plus 50 Skill Points. Even if a Skillpoint is worth 2g for these people (which I am sure it is not because only few players know how to make 2g or more with a skillpoint), they still payed 1500g for the stack of Giant Eyes (6g each) instead of crafting the whole thing themselves.
    The current price for Immobulus (yes it is the sell price, but as we see, enough people buy it there) is a lot higher than the sum of its ingredients even though the crafting requires neither skill (crafting disciplines) nor luck.
    Now if a person who wants to have Immobulus does the math himself, he/she will notice this and craft it himself/herself instead of buying it. He/she can even buy all the ingredients instantly at the lowest sell offers and still gets away cheaper than without crafting (currently he/she will end up paying <1400g with instant-crafting), saving more than 200g with only a few minutes time spent.

    Assuming the Immobulus sell price stays constant (1650-1700g) suggests that the Giant Eye price will move into the direction where the crafting price for Immobulus equals 1650-1700g. As seen in the math above, this would be 6g for the Giant Eyes (no need for Immobulus to rise to 2000g).

    To your "who does that?" point:
    Well, that's actually a good question, but the answer does not matter.
    Personally, I wouldn't even pay 2000g for a legendary Scepter/other weapon, but this is just my opinion.
    We don't have to know who pays 1650g for an exotic Scepter and we don't have to know why he/she does that, the only thing that matters for us is if somebody pays these amounts, and this is the case here.

    ~Finn

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