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This article was written by Finn.
Giant Eyes have been rising since the beginning of this year (see gw2spidy). They started at about 80s buy and 1g sell price in January and have climbed up to 3g 90s buy and 4g 40s sell price already which is an increase of 300-400%!
Now Giant Eyes are a very special item. Not only do they belong to no tier and thus have no cheaper or more expensive crafting material equivalent, they are also hard to get. I have seen several people claim they got a Giant Eye dropped from a mob in Cursed Shore, but all these drops are reported to have happened in September 2012. This does not seem like a lucky coincidence to me and the fact that the Official Guild Wars 2 Wiki page suggests Giant Eyes to be "not dropped by any creature" makes me certain in my assumption that the only way left to obtain them is by opening Heavy Moldy Bags (the drop posssibility was probably removed).
The Heavy Moldy Bag drop rate page in the Wiki has collected data of various players, summing up to 50 Giant Eyes from 68051 Bags and a drop rate of ~0.07% (last page update was July 28). I myself have opened quite a few bags more than that (it was really profitable about a year ago and if the gold is right, I am as busy as a bee!) and it seems that the actual drop rate is 0.1% (my result is ~0.0996% ), meaning 1 Giant Eye in 1000 Heavy Moldy Bags.
Now let's take a look at the use of Giant Eyes. They are components in four different Mystic Forge recipes (all resulting in Exotic weapons), the most "consuming" of them being Immobulus, which requires 250 (!) Giant Eyes.
As can be seen on spidy, the demand for Giant Eyes lies around 2000, which is more than five times the supply of only 380.
All my spiel summed up:
- Giant Eyes are constantly rising for 9
months already and there is no reason why they should stop.
- Giant Eyes are expensive and very
time-consuming to obtain.
- Two players buying Giant Eyes for Immobulus
would be enough to make the whole Giant Eye market collapse
and the price for them to skyrocket.
Of course these fictional two players will not just instantly buy 250 Giant Eyes off the Trading Post.
They are most likely to place buy orders, either for all 250 at once or in smaller steps of 10 or 50 each. Either way they will drive the price up and I am sure the reason why Giant Eyes are rising since January is a constant demand due to the Immobulus recipe.
So, should I be buying Giant Eyes? If yes, how many?
You should be buying Giant Eyes now only if you have gold lying around that you will not need in the next months. The amount you purchase is of course your own decision, but remember never to spend ALL of your gold (especially not all on the same item).
Giant Eyes are definitely a solid long-term investment and a nice method to make decent amounts of gold with close to no expenditure of time.
Just to mention again how awesome this investment is, imagine you would have spent 100g on Giant Eyes in January: Even with instant-buying and instant-selling (which you shouldn't do) you would be able to pick up 231g 5s profit now (based on the prices mentioned at the beginning of this wall of text), probably with less than one minute time spent! :D
Well, guess what I did. ;)
I hope you enjoyed this post, leave a comment below if you a have a question or (constructive!) criticism, until then, have fun trading!