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Understanding Black Lion Weapon Spikes

Daniel asked:
 
"Hi Markco,
The patch today got me wondering about a trend with Black Lion Weapons. When the Chaos skins were pushed up to 5 tickets and the new Tempest weapons were introduced, the Chaos skins went up in price by a few dozen gold. I'm thinking this is probably the case whenever a patch with weapon skins comes out, but how long does this spike last? Does the value of the weapons continue to increase or is it just a temporary thing? Thanks."

Good question Daniel. Allow me to answer by providing the timetable for almost all price "spikes" in the game: Guild Wars 2's News Cycle.

The faster players find out about new skins, the sooner they will buy them. So when a new patch goes live on a Friday, odds are most people will have found out by Sunday afternoon. You will then have until around a week to two weeks before everyone has bought the skin they wanted and moved on to the next thing they're chasing.

Only a small fraction of players pay close attention to the Guild Wars 2 home page, news related sites, patch notes, videos, etc. The sooner you discover that players WILL WANT SOMETHING, the sooner you can take advantage of the situation. Predicting what will happen after an unknown (like a patch) comes out is very tricky, but spotting a news story as it's occurring or about to occur is easy provided that you pay attention to the Guild Wars 2 News Cycle.

Even with holiday events, I find that the buzz surrounding new items dies around a month later. Luckily, GW2 is always adding new items and features to keep people chasing the proverbial carrot on a stick. What's cool about the devs' process is that they keep reusing old materials instead of always reintroducing new ones (like world of warcarft did with each expansion). This allows you to play long term markets like silver ore, leather, etc because you can realistically expect the devs to eventually raise their price with patches.

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