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Buy Snowflakes Now Before They Melt

Written by Draco.

I think all of the snowflakes are currently at a great price to buy at these levels. They all traded between 4-10 silver  for most of the year.

Delicate  -  Glittering  -  Tiny Snowflakes:
Dirt cheap! You can spend about 20 gold for a nice block, even if it goes wrong, you not out a lot of gold. Upside potential is unreal!!!  If we just hope for a rebound of only one half of last year's average levels due to an increased and slightly continuous supply, your due a great payday! I would call these the most riskiest play of the flakes due to the massive increased supply due to this Wintersday event.

Pristine Snowflakes:
Currently just under 2 silver each right now. Again, if these only go one half the average of last year we are looking at 2-3 times profit!

Flawless Snowflakes:
Currently under 20 copper, demand is almost double the supply. Upside potential is huge.  If this only hits 2 silver you can make almost 10 times your investment!

Unique Snowflakes:
Currently about 20 copper and demand is more than five times the supply! This was trading between 6-10 silver most of last year. I think this is the gem of all the flakes. I'm looking for a big payday on this one.

As with any recommendation I make, please do you own research and arrive to your own conclusions. If you follow my recommendations, and they flop, we flop together. If I'm right, we make some nice profit together. I provide these recommendations hoping that we can all make a good few good coins.

Hoping a great New Year for everyone,



  1. Anonymous said...:

    Using 6 silver as an anchor is borderline misleading. Snowflakes have a good upside but we need to be realistic about the consumption factors since the supply situation has been altered so dramatically.

    We used to be dealing with a market where supply had been drained and no more than a few tens of thousand were floating around. 6s made sense in a such a market as the price was distorted by massive undersupply- this is no longer the case. A years worth of each tier has been dumped on the market in a matter of weeks, this will take a long time to burn through and the items now have to be dealt with regarding their substitutes.

    So look at consumption: what are they used for? Upgrading to the next tier, which returns 17.5T+1 per 50 on average. Leveling via crafting which will use snowflakes until they get back to bone prices. And mystic forging for precursors (until pristines rise too far beyond T5 bone).

    The stats are rubbish, so crafting outside of leveling or forging isn't going to be a good consumption draw, and achievement hunters might burn them to get their Ascended 18/18, but the cost of other mats is so significant that most will likely still go for useful stats.

    So, under those consumption draws what is worthwhile? Pristines have been burnt through consistantly by forgers throughout the event, they'll likely quickly rise back to 2s, at which point other T5 will start competing with them, however they'll still be preferable due to the relatively large hidden supply, meaning punters will pay a small premium to avoid having to replace their overnight order stacks so often.

    Currently the per skill point (SP) return for upgrading uniques is 30silver, which is below certain other uses, but high enough that when combined with consistancy of return and high demand of T5 it's a big draw for SP converters. This will likely push uniques up, and keep pristine lower for longer.

    Glittering requires luminesant dust to upgrade to uniques, meaning that conversion will never concievably be worth it. This means uniques are likely to be consumed by upgrades, but not have a continuing supply. Since the only consumption for glittering would be craft leveling for which T3 bones are currently 16c, and creating Giant Gifts, glittering is likely to stay never where they are for a long while.

    Delicate wont get consumed by upgrades due to the situation with glittering. But it's substitute T2 items are worth 60c, the upside for this is significant, but it's unclear how long natural consumption will take. They are also used in the forge recipe for giant gifts, but the gifts would need to increase to 5s to see any use of it.

    Tiny are perhaps the worst off, the number spawned was massive, and they have zero vendor value meaning you're risking your entire amount. Even with a massive crafting expansion, each player would only consume a handful. It's possible, due to low dust cost, that upgrading to delicates might use up items, but the situation with delicates is highly speculative.

    If you want to invest in snowflakes (or any material) you need to work out how people consume them. People don't buy things randomly, they buy them to use them. The massive supply dumped on the market is a problem, but really the market burns through things surprisingly quickly, but not for no reason. Many tiers of snowflakes are in a very speculative position, and will lock your money away for a long while, and possibly until next Wintersday.

    Uniques and pristines are likely going to be fair moneymakers. Delicates are very reasonable speculative investments. But glittering and tiny are moneyholes with very poor prospects. Remember Candy Corn, not all materials are growers- ANets recent supply flood policy for festival items has made things a lot more riskier.

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